Live: Monday, Sept. 10, 2018

11:25 a.m. New York time


It sometimes happens that a chart presents a series of waves bouncing along a trend without little differentiation by magnitude. Elliott wave analysis relies on how far waves move relative to others in the trend in order to label waves.

The chart above, of SPY over 15 days with 20-minute bars, is a case in point. Since the peak on Aug. 29, the price has set eight peaks downward — a series of lower highs and lower lows, before today setting a higher high in early trading.

The unresolved question regarding SPY since the peak is whether the price is tracing an X wave as part of an ongoing countertrend correction, or is it a 1st wave, the beginning of a primary downtrend as the bear market resumes its natural course.

I can tell nothing from the shape of the wave at this point. The psychology behind it is clearly a slightly dominate negative expectation for the market battling it out with a still strong positive expectation. It is the outcome of the battle within the public mood that will determine whether this is an X wave or a 1st wave.

In my odds-based trades, my position in AAPL remains unprofitable, the price having moved below the lower boundary of the profit zone. AMD remains in the zone and is showing a small profit.

As promised, over the weekend I explored the TastyWorks brokerage over the weekend. It is the work of Tom Sosnoff, a veteran options trader upon whose style and methods I have based my own.

The biggest advantage that I see so far is very low fees for options trades: $1 per contract entered, and zero dollars — nothing — for exiting trades. That low overhead means I can do smaller trades, and therefore increase the number of positions I hold at any given time. The larger the number of trades, the more statistics can work in favor of a profitable outcome.

Sosnoff’s motto, which I’ve adopted as one the aphorism that govern my work: Trade small, trade often. TastyWorks pricing makes the small possible.

This is a very good thing, and I’ve opened an account.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 10, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


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