Live: Thursday, Oct. 11, 2018

11:20 a.m. New York time

I have entered a short iron fly position on C.

10:45 a.m. New York time

I have entered a short bear call spread position on SPY.

10:10 a.m.. New York time

In an update to Wednesday’s Live feed, I posted an analysis of the S&P 500 last night, in the wake of a sharp one-day decline in the markets. I concluded that my prior analysis was spot on, and the markets indeed entered a major decline beginning with the Sept. 20 peak.

Based on that analysis, I shall be re-entering a bear position on SPY today.

Today’s Book

Elliott Wave Principle: A Key to Market Behavior

by A.J. Frost and Robert Prechter

The morning after is always a time for questions. This morning’s question: What happened with te markets and their sudden sharp decline on Wednesday, Market news reports, as always, were unsatisfactory. Trader panic over rising interest rates, they said, despite the fact that interest rates have been rising for quite some time now. When assessing the market decline, I turned immediately to Elliott wave analysis and to Frost and Prechter’s textbook on the subject, which has guided my trading since I first began in the early 1980s. I highly recommend it. 

More about the book

I shall also be looking at an earnings play. Five banking companies will have earnings announcements up for trading today and on Friday. I shall pick one of them only for the two days, since I want to keep cash in reserve for trading other sectors as the earnings season progresses.

The five are C, JPM, PNC, WFC and BAC. The top picks, based on high implied volatility ranks, are C, JPM and WFC. Of those, C has the largest market cap, and so is my top pick for a full analysis.

Here is how my options positions stand this morning.

sym option debit share price curr % max profit net prft/shr $ option days left
EWZ 1.02 38.27 (18.6) (0.16) 36
JBL 2.08 23.70 (51.8) (0.71) 8
LEN 3.45 43.58 (6.8) (0.22) 36
STZ 8.80 220.28 (4.8) (0.40) 36
WBA 3.13 71.82 12.1 0.43 36

And this is how things stand with my share positions

sym share price net result % net profit $ days held
AAPL 215.01 -4.0% (8.95) 27
CHK 4.37 9.3% 0.37 27
FXI 39.41 -4.4% (1.80) 27
SPXU 36.97 -8.9% (3.59) 149
TSLA 256.20 -16.0% (48.79) 10
VNQI 53.15 -6.4% (3.66) 28

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 11, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


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