11:20 a.m. New York time
I have entered a short iron fly position on C.
10:45 a.m. New York time
I have entered a short bear call spread position on SPY.
10:10 a.m.. New York time
In an update to Wednesday’s Live feed, I posted an analysis of the S&P 500 last night, in the wake of a sharp one-day decline in the markets. I concluded that my prior analysis was spot on, and the markets indeed entered a major decline beginning with the Sept. 20 peak.
Based on that analysis, I shall be re-entering a bear position on SPY today.
Today’s Book
Elliott Wave Principle: A Key to Market Behavior
by A.J. Frost and Robert Prechter
The morning after is always a time for questions. This morning’s question: What happened with te markets and their sudden sharp decline on Wednesday, Market news reports, as always, were unsatisfactory. Trader panic over rising interest rates, they said, despite the fact that interest rates have been rising for quite some time now. When assessing the market decline, I turned immediately to Elliott wave analysis and to Frost and Prechter’s textbook on the subject, which has guided my trading since I first began in the early 1980s. I highly recommend it.
I shall also be looking at an earnings play. Five banking companies will have earnings announcements up for trading today and on Friday. I shall pick one of them only for the two days, since I want to keep cash in reserve for trading other sectors as the earnings season progresses.
The five are C, JPM, PNC, WFC and BAC. The top picks, based on high implied volatility ranks, are C, JPM and WFC. Of those, C has the largest market cap, and so is my top pick for a full analysis.
Here is how my options positions stand this morning.
| sym | option debit | share price | curr % max profit | net prft/shr $ | option days left |
| EWZ | 1.02 | 38.27 | (18.6) | (0.16) | 36 |
| JBL | 2.08 | 23.70 | (51.8) | (0.71) | 8 |
| LEN | 3.45 | 43.58 | (6.8) | (0.22) | 36 |
| STZ | 8.80 | 220.28 | (4.8) | (0.40) | 36 |
| WBA | 3.13 | 71.82 | 12.1 | 0.43 | 36 |
And this is how things stand with my share positions
| sym | share price | net result % | net profit $ | days held |
| AAPL | 215.01 | -4.0% | (8.95) | 27 |
| CHK | 4.37 | 9.3% | 0.37 | 27 |
| FXI | 39.41 | -4.4% | (1.80) | 27 |
| SPXU | 36.97 | -8.9% | (3.59) | 149 |
| TSLA | 256.20 | -16.0% | (48.79) | 10 |
| VNQI | 53.15 | -6.4% | (3.66) | 28 |
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 11, 2018
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader 