Live: Monday, Oct. 29, 2018

11:50 a.m. New York time

And in rechecking AMGN’s earnings publication date, I find that the date is now Tuesday, Oct. 30, after the closing bell. So AMGN will be a trade for tomorrow, not today. I plan no trades today.

11:45 a.m. New York time

I’ve made my decision on today’s earnings play, and have chosen AMGN. It’s average post-earnings move is about half that of the alternative trade, FB. And FB is more prone to moves based on news reports and commentary, compared to AMGN.

11:15 a.m. New York time.

I’m looking at the two prospective earnings plays today the tech sector’s FB and AMGN from the health care sector, Both are in the top quintile of their respective implied volatility. I shall make a decision and post an analysis shortly.

The other prospects, grouped by implied volatility rank quintile, are:

1st quintile (81-100): ARNC, CAKE, DOD, MAS, RIG

2nd quintile (61-80): MDLZ, PFE

3rd quintile: (41-60): KO

  • Today’s Book

Crises of the Republic

Lying in Politics, Civil Disobedience, On Violence, Thoughts on Politics and Revolution

by Hannah Arendt

Truth be told, I spent much of the weekend obsessing about the violence that seems to be a dominant theme in American politics in 2018. The unsuccessful mail-bomb attempts and the synagogue murders on the weekend were the most visible manifestations. 

My evening video viewing helped frame my understanding, as I binge-watched the historical Babylon Berlin for a second time on Netflix, binge-watched  the fanciful Season 3 of The Man in the High Castle on Amazon Primeand binge-read the many all-too-real news stories in the New York Times and Washington Post and elsewhere about the American violence.

But ultimately, streaming TV series weren’t enough. And so i turned to the thinker whose work has perhaps done the most to shed a harsh and revealing light on totalitarianism and how it comes into being. I shall tackle her masterwork The Origins of Totalitarianism later, after the heavy work of earnings season is done, but for now I’m focusing on four essays whose titles suggest our political world of 2018: About lies, protests, violence and revolution. Salient topics for our age.

As goes our politics, so goes our markets. I consider this book to be reading in support of my trading.

More about the book

A snapshot of my options positions.

sym option debit share price curr % max profit net prft/shr $ option days left
C 3.66 65.56 (6.1) (0.21) 18
EWZ 1.35 40.65 (57.0) (0.49) 18
GILD 5.58 71.34 9.7 0.60 53
HON 6.21 145.38 2.1 0.13 18
IBM 10.13 122.81 (49.2) (3.34) 18
JNJ 5.74 138.65 (2.5) (0.14) 18
MCD 7.34 175.05 (18.4) (1.14) 18
MSFT 7.91 107.15 8.0 0.69 53
PM 3.84 89.50 (12.0) (0.41) 18
STZ 6.53 210.43 22.3 1.87 18
UPS 8.68 107.32 (5.9) (0.48) 53
WBA 3.96 77.33 (11.2) (0.40) 18

And my shares positions.

sym share price net result % net profit $ days held
AAPL 218.57 -2.4% (5.39) 45
CHK 3.88 -3.0% (0.12) 45
FXI 38.96 -5.5% (2.25) 45
SPXU 39.82 -1.8% (0.74) 167
TSLA 342.06 12.2% 37.07 28
VNQI 53.26 -6.2% (3.55) 46

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 29, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at