Live: Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2018

2:25 p.m. New York time

SPY has bounced off of the low set on Monday. It could be the beginning of the 2nd wave p at the Minute degree, or not. In any case, I’m not trading back in today.

12:20 p.m. New York time

I have entered a short iron fly position on AMGN. I chose the earlier expiration date, Nov. 16, in order to make funds available quickly for future trades during the earnings season.

11:10 a.m. New York time.

I’ll be taking a close look at SPY today. My initial sense is that it has finished a wave 1 down and is moving into a 2nd wave correction, but I want to dive into the chart to get a sense of when I should re-enter.

Today’s earnings play is a choice between AMGN and BIDU. Both are in the top quintile of their respective implied volatility rating. AMGN has more than double the market capitalization of BIDU. Therefore, AMGN is my choice. Analysis and possibly a trade to come.

The other prospects, grouped by implied volatility rank quintile, are:

1st quintile (81-100): GM, BAX, ALL, APC, EA, YUM and ZEN

2nd quintile (61-80): MOS and BGFV

3rd quintile: (41-60): PEG, UAA and UA

Today’s Book

The Fifth Risk

by Michael Lewis

Now #5 on the Amazon Charts in its 2nd week on the list. A new book by the financial writer who always finds new, and often surprising, insights into the world of money and systems.

In The Fifth Risk, Lewis dives into the most contentious issue of our times, the functioning of government in a time of attack and change.

He asks, What are the consequences of handing government over to people who have no idea how it works.

The New York Times calls it his “most ambitious and important book”. Quartz says that it is a “spellbinding, alarming analysis of the most serious threats to Americans’ safety happening now from inside the U.S. government.

More about the book

A snapshot of my options positions.

sym option debit share price curr % max profit net prft/shr $ option days left
C 3.94 64.17 (14.2) (0.49) 17
EWZ 0.91 39.65 (5.8) (0.05) 17
GILD 5.84 71.44 5.5 0.34 52
HON 7.15 141.91 (12.8) (0.81) 17
IBM 10.18 116.86 (49.9) (3.39) 17
JNJ 6.04 139.40 (7.9) (0.44) 17
MCD 7.73 176.55 (24.7) (1.53) 17
MSFT 8.20 102.62 4.7 0.40 52
PM 4.31 91.27 (25.7) (0.88) 17
STZ 10.05 198.26 (19.6) (1.65) 17
UPS 9.15 106.27 (11.6) (0.95) 52
WBA 3.92 76.96 (10.1) (0.36) 17

And my shares positions.

sym share price net result % net profit $ days held
AAPL 213.37 -4.7% (10.59) 46
CHK 3.25 -18.8% (0.75) 46
FXI 38.61 -6.3% (2.61) 46
SPXU 41.67 2.7% 1.11 168
TSLA 332.98 9.2% 27.99 29
VNQI 52.73 -7.2% (4.08) 47

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 30, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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