2:25 p.m. New York time
SPY has bounced off of the low set on Monday. It could be the beginning of the 2nd wave p at the Minute degree, or not. In any case, I’m not trading back in today.
12:20 p.m. New York time
I have entered a short iron fly position on AMGN. I chose the earlier expiration date, Nov. 16, in order to make funds available quickly for future trades during the earnings season.
11:10 a.m. New York time.
I’ll be taking a close look at SPY today. My initial sense is that it has finished a wave 1 down and is moving into a 2nd wave correction, but I want to dive into the chart to get a sense of when I should re-enter.
Today’s earnings play is a choice between AMGN and BIDU. Both are in the top quintile of their respective implied volatility rating. AMGN has more than double the market capitalization of BIDU. Therefore, AMGN is my choice. Analysis and possibly a trade to come.
The other prospects, grouped by implied volatility rank quintile, are:
1st quintile (81-100): GM, BAX, ALL, APC, EA, YUM and ZEN
2nd quintile (61-80): MOS and BGFV
3rd quintile: (41-60): PEG, UAA and UA
Today’s Book
The Fifth Risk
by Michael Lewis
Now #5 on the Amazon Charts in its 2nd week on the list. A new book by the financial writer who always finds new, and often surprising, insights into the world of money and systems.
In The Fifth Risk, Lewis dives into the most contentious issue of our times, the functioning of government in a time of attack and change.
He asks, What are the consequences of handing government over to people who have no idea how it works.
The New York Times calls it his “most ambitious and important book”. Quartz says that it is a “spellbinding, alarming analysis of the most serious threats to Americans’ safety happening now from inside the U.S. government.
A snapshot of my options positions.
| sym | option debit | share price | curr % max profit | net prft/shr $ | option days left |
| C | 3.94 | 64.17 | (14.2) | (0.49) | 17 |
| EWZ | 0.91 | 39.65 | (5.8) | (0.05) | 17 |
| GILD | 5.84 | 71.44 | 5.5 | 0.34 | 52 |
| HON | 7.15 | 141.91 | (12.8) | (0.81) | 17 |
| IBM | 10.18 | 116.86 | (49.9) | (3.39) | 17 |
| JNJ | 6.04 | 139.40 | (7.9) | (0.44) | 17 |
| MCD | 7.73 | 176.55 | (24.7) | (1.53) | 17 |
| MSFT | 8.20 | 102.62 | 4.7 | 0.40 | 52 |
| PM | 4.31 | 91.27 | (25.7) | (0.88) | 17 |
| STZ | 10.05 | 198.26 | (19.6) | (1.65) | 17 |
| UPS | 9.15 | 106.27 | (11.6) | (0.95) | 52 |
| WBA | 3.92 | 76.96 | (10.1) | (0.36) | 17 |
And my shares positions.
| sym | share price | net result % | net profit $ | days held |
| AAPL | 213.37 | -4.7% | (10.59) | 46 |
| CHK | 3.25 | -18.8% | (0.75) | 46 |
| FXI | 38.61 | -6.3% | (2.61) | 46 |
| SPXU | 41.67 | 2.7% | 1.11 | 168 |
| TSLA | 332.98 | 9.2% | 27.99 | 29 |
| VNQI | 52.73 | -7.2% | (4.08) | 47 |
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 30, 2018
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.L
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 