10 a.m. New York time
Friday according to my trading rules is when I shall exit the May monthly options, 21 days before expiration. That deadline involves five short iron condor positions: TWLO, DIS, EA, GDXJ and STNE. In addition, a short bear put vertical spread on SPY, using a different strategy, is in a losing position.
TWLO and EA are showing a profit if I were to exit today. The others are showing a loss at this point, and three of those — DIS, GDXJ and STNE — have moved beyond the profit zone, defined as the region between the short call strike price and the short put strike price. All in all, barring large price moves, it’s shaping up to be a dismal Friday.
The strategy I’m using relies on wide profit zones giving an 85% or so chance of expiring with a positive return. As always in that sort of statistical setup, it’s not a 100% guarantee, since there is a 15% chance that a position will incur a loss. April has turned out to be a 15% sort of month for these positions.
But, it’s not over yet, so we shall see what happens today into Friday.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 24, 2019
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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