Live: Friday, July 12, 2019

1:40 p.m. New York time

My positions are ending the week profitable, except for EWZ, which is within its profit range but not yet profitable.

Next week I have two thought experiments that I’ll be posting. These are hypothetical trades testing alternative strategies by asking, “What if—-?”

The first will come on Monday, July 15, testing what would have happened had I held NVDA and SMH until the week of expiration, rather than exiting when they became unprofitable, as my rules require. In the intervening two weeks, did they become wildly profitable, branding my early exit as a costly mistake? Of did they continue to sink in the quicksand of loss, branding my early exit as a stroke of genius? Monday’s thought experiment will provide answers.

The second will come on Wednesday, July 17, testing the strategy I wrote about in an essay earlier this week, on July 10. The strategy would allow me to hold high-probability positions through earnings announcements by entering a very short term low probability position as a hedge. IBM’s earnings announcement after the closing bell gives me an opportunity to test the idea, on paper, no dollars at risk. I’ll post the analyses of the hypothetical trades on Wednesday and then follow through with results of the earnings play on Thursday and of the long-term position whenever I exit, most likely on July 26.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 12, 2019


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at