Live: Thursday, January 2, 2020

4:10 p.m. New York time

I exited DX for $16.88 credit, up $1.05 from the entry price. With 30 cents a share in dividends added in, the position produced a  6.5% return over 57 days for a +41% annual rate.

3:45 p.m. New York time

One of my Income Portfolio holdings, DX, has been downgraded to hold, and I’ve exited. Results shortly.

10:50 a.m. New York time

And once again a string of exits, two from my primary portfolio, Growth; one from a secondary portfolio, Momentum; and one from a watchlist portfolio, Genetics.

That follows five portfolio exits on December 31, two of them from Growth; one on December 30, from Growth; one on December 27, from Momentum; and three on December 26, two of them from Growth. That follows a period when exits from the Growth portfolio, while not rare, weren’t daily occurrences and didn’t come in batches. So what gives?

The Growth Portfolio differs from the other two strategy portfolios in that it is forward looking. It is based on analyst assessments of future prospects for earnings growth, the engine that drives stock prices. Momentum, in contrast, looks to the past — if the trend has been up in several different time frames the it qualifies for the portfolio. Value is wishful thinking — a stock is cheap now compared to earnings, maybe it will recover.

My hypotheses is that we’re getting a string revised assessments from analysts. It’s the start of the year, and that’s when such things happen. The next earnings season kicks off January 15, when AA publishes 4th quarter results, and it is in the run-up to earnings that new analytical reports are most useful.

Today’s trades in stocks.

  • Exits
    • Growth Portfolio
      • CRAI for a $53.94 credit, up $3.13 from entry. I received 23 cents in dividend payouts. Altogether, the position produced a 6.1% return over 43 days for a +52% annual rate.
      • HA for a $29.73 debit, down 93 cents from entry, resulting in a 3.0% loss over nine days, or a -123% annual rate.
    • Momentum Portfolio
      • IRWD for a $13.33 credit, down 12 cents from entry, showing a 0.9% loss over three days for a -109% annual rate.
    • Genetics Portfolio
      • EDIT for a $29.17 credit, down 53 cents from entry, producing a 1.85 loss over two days, or a -326% annual rate.
  • Entry
    • Growth Portfolio
      • BLDR for a $25.41 debit.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 2, 2020


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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