Live: Monday, February 3, 2020

2:50 p.m. New York time

I’ve exited my share position in PNW for a $98.13 credit, up $6.47 per share from the entry price, producing a 7.9% return over 21 days, or an 138% annual rate.

PNW was part of the now defunct Utilities Portfolio originally. I moved it to the Bench in order to capture the $0.7925 per share dividend, which is included in the return. PNW at this point has a sell (4) score from Zacks.

And it’s departure clears the Bench.

1:20 p.m. New York time

I’ve updated XBI Analysis with results.

11:35 a.m. New York time

I exited my XBI short iron condor this morning for 12.3% of maximum potential profit. I shall update the analysis with results later today.

Two of my short iron condor options positions have options that are in the money. If they are still ITM in expiration week, which begins February 17, then I shall exit the leg at risk of assignment.

  • The EEM and XLE short iron condors are in the money on the put side. Exiting the short and long puts would leave bear call spreads for the last few days before expiration.
  • TLT and XLK are in the money on the call side. Exiting the calls leaves bull put spreads.

Assuming they remain out of the money, the spreads would expire without value, for maximum profit.

The XLI and XLK short iron condors remain out of the money, although, like everything else, that could change.

On the shares side of my trading, I’ve ended my experiment with trailing stop/loss based on a multiple of the Wilder’s Average True Range, reverting to a trailing 20% stop/loss. A study of the January trades using double the ATR showed about a 50% chance each of an position rising after exit or falling with a double ATR trailing stop.

The tighter stop produced many more trades, resulting from stopped positions, than the 20% trailing did. I’m seeing little advantage from a lot more work. So I’ll set an stop with enough distance to reduce the likelihood of a triggered sale, yet close enough to my entry point so as to not break the bank if things go seriously wrong.

With the more forgiving stop/loss strategy, I had no positions stopped this morning. I entered three positions in today’s focus portfolio.

Stock Trades

  • Genetics Portfolio
    • Entries
      • AAPL, for a $312.08 debit.
      • GH, a $76.14 debit.
      • RUBY, a $7.81 debit.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 3, 2020

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.