Live: Thursday, May 7, 2020

10:10 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 has meandered sideways since May 5.

What does it mean? At this point the chart shows neither confirmation nor rebuttal that the upward correction that began March 22 is continuing.

Screen Shot 2020-05-07 at 7.10.10 AM

What does Elliott wave theory say? It will take a decline below 2717.25, the beginning of Intermediate wave A by my count, to confirm that the upward correction has ended and Primary wave 3 to the downside has begun.

What is the alternative? That Primary wave 3 began with the peak on April 30 at 2965.

What about my trades? Eight days until expiration of my three short bear call options spread positions on SPY — Lots 12, 13 and 14 — on May 15.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave International has long been the leading analytical house based on Elliott wave theory. They make available a number of free educational materials and other resources, in addition to their for-pay subscriptions.

Terminology. Here are some links to information about some of the technical jargon I use.

Charts. On my charts, waves have a subscript showing the degree above or below the Intermediate degree. Here are the subscripts and the degree each represents:

  • {+3} Supercycle
  • {+2} Cycle
  • {+1} Primary
  • No subscript: Intermediate
  • {-1} Minor
  • {-2} Minute
  • {-3} Minuette

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 7, 2020


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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