Bitcoin Analysis

1:40 p.m. New York time

What’s happening now? U.S. markets are closed for the President’s Day holiday. However, Bitcoin futures traded overnight within a narrow range that has not yet challenged Thursday’s high of 49,500.

What does it mean? The middle wave of the rise since January 27 continues, internally tracing a shallow correction before rising to a new high.

What are the alternatives? The correction under Elliott’s rules could have ended on February 9. If so, Thursday’s high is an interim spot in a final push to the upside. Given the form of the chart, I think the alternative is less likely.

[Bitcoin futures at 1:37 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volulme]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise since January 27 is wave 5 of Minuette degree, and internally, my principal count is that the high of February 9 is the end of wave 3 of Subminuette degree and the beginning of a Subminuette 4th wave correction.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave International has long been the leading analytical house based on Elliott wave theory. They make available a number of free educational materials and other resources, in addition to their for-pay subscriptions.

I recommend two books, both by people associated with EWI.

First, Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost is the book that, along with Prechter’s analyses, that created the revival of Elliott wave theory. I first read it in 1984, and it has had a profound influenced on my thinking about markets ever since.

Second, I’ve found Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading by Wayne Gorman and Jeffrey Kennedy, both of EWI, to be a useful book that relates Elliott wave theory to practical trading. The authors are hands-on Elliotticians, and for an active trader, that’s exactly what’s needed — less theory and more how-to. The first chapter of the book gives a very nice thumbnail run down of what Elliott wave theory is all about.

Terminology. Here are some links to information about some of the technical jargon I use.

Charts. On my charts, waves have a subscript showing the degree above or below the Intermediate degree. Here are the subscripts and the degree each represents:

  • {+3} Supercycle
  • {+2} Cycle
  • {+1} Primary
  • No subscript: Intermediate
  • {-1} Minor
  • {-2} Minute
  • {-3} Minuette
  • {-4} Subminuette
  • {-5} Micro
  • {-6} Submicro
  • {-7} Minuscule

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 15, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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