Bitcoin Analysis

3 p.m. New York time

What’s happening now? Bitcoin futures hit a higher high of 51,065 in trading today, continuing the rise that began on January 27 from 29,9075.

What does it mean? The crypto currency is in its final upward push. One that movement is complete, it will begin a decline that is the early stage of a significant decline that will take back much of the rise from March 13, 2020, when the price bottomed out at 4210.

What are the alternatives? The final upward push could continue for a significant distance. It is unrestricted by any rule of Elliott wave analysis. As the baseball great Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over ’til it’s over.”

[Bitcoin futures at 3:01 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise since January 27, beginning at 29,075, is wave 5 of Minuette degree. Within it, the futures are tracing out wave 5 of Subminuette degree, which began on January 10. The completion of Minuette 5 will also market the completion of wave 5 of a series of parent waves, up to Minor degree, the wave that began on March 13.

The trading history of Bitcoin doesn’t go back far enough to allow for a characterization of the coming decline. Is it the beginning of a new downtrend of Minor degree and its parent Primary degree? Or is it a downward correction within a continuing Primary degree rise? To reach that conclusion we’ll need to understand the pattern of the decline, as set out in the rules of Elliott wave analysis.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave International has long been the leading analytical house based on Elliott wave theory. They make available a number of free educational materials and other resources, in addition to their for-pay subscriptions.

I recommend two books, both by people associated with EWI.

First, Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost is the book that, along with Prechter’s analyses, that created the revival of Elliott wave theory. I first read it in 1984, and it has had a profound influenced on my thinking about markets ever since.

Second, I’ve found Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading by Wayne Gorman and Jeffrey Kennedy, both of EWI, to be a useful book that relates Elliott wave theory to practical trading. The authors are hands-on Elliotticians, and for an active trader, that’s exactly what’s needed — less theory and more how-to. The first chapter of the book gives a very nice thumbnail run down of what Elliott wave theory is all about.

Terminology. Here are some links to information about some of the technical jargon I use.

Charts. On my charts, waves have a subscript showing the degree above or below the Intermediate degree. Here are the subscripts and the degree each represents:

  • {+3} Supercycle
  • {+2} Cycle
  • {+1} Primary
  • No subscript: Intermediate
  • {-1} Minor
  • {-2} Minute
  • {-3} Minuette
  • {-4} Subminuette
  • {-5} Micro
  • {-6} Submicro
  • {-7} Minuscule

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 16, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at