SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500E-mini futures rose to within a dollar of the June 1 peak of 4230. If it rises above that level, then the upward correction that began on May 13 is still underway and Elliott wave analysis will label today’s peak as wave C within wave 2 of Subbitsy degree. and the June 1 peak will be an A wave within wave C within Subbitsy wave 2. I’ve kept this morning’s analysis as my principle, and will continue to do so until the 4230 level is beached.

9:40 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply in early trading, reaching a high (so far) of 4214.75, less than 20 points below the June 1 high of 4230.

What does it mean? My principle analysis places that June 1 high as the end of an upward correction within a downtrend that began May 13, and as long as the price remains below 4230, that analysis stands.

What are the alternatives? 1) A rise above the June 1 high would mean that the correction is still underway. 2) A price above the May 9 high, the peak of a larger rise that began last year, would mean that the correction was within an ongoing uptrend rather than a downtrend.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Wave 5 of Subminuette degree and of higher degrees peaked on May 9, ending a long-running uptrend. The subsequent decline is the first wave of a new downtrend, which is still in its first baby steps, wave 1 of Bitsy degree. Within that 1st wave, wave 2 of Subbitsy degree ended on June 1, and the chart is now in the early stages of Subbitsy wave 3.

In the first alternative analysis, a rise above the end of Subbitsy wave 2 would mean that the 2nd wave correction is still underway. In the second analysis, a rise above the end of wave 5 of Subminuette degree would mean that the long-running uptrend is still underway.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 4, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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