SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continue to move higher, reaching 4275.25 on the futures, 4284.94 on the index. No change in the analysis, and I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose slightly in overnight trading and at the opening bell had reached a high of 4266.25.

What does it mean? The rise that began on March 20 continues, part of a larger uptrend that has been underway for 16 months. The present uptrend is the final leg in a much larger uptrend, and its completion will be followed by a significant decline.

What’s the alternative? As the price continually reaches new highs, it’s important to remember that each latest high point is potentially the end of the rise and the beginning of a new downtrend. Or not. The rules of my analysis set no upper boundary.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 255-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise from June 20 is wave 5 of Micro degree, the final upward push in the rise that began May 13, labelled wave 5 of Subminuette degree. And indeed, the end of the present five-day-old rise will cascade three degrees up the fractal structure to mark the end of wave 5 of Minute degree and, one degree higher, wave 3 of Minor degree, which began on February 23, 2020 from 2191.86.

There is no certain way to set a target for wave 5 of Micro degree, nor can we do more than guess how long it may take for wave 5 to reach its end. The upper boundary of the parent degree’s price channel — wave 5 of Subminuette degree — suggests a possible target in the 4400s if the price reaches the upper boundary around July 5. The longer it takes to reach the boundary, the higher the possible target.

The one certainty is that the present wave internally will contain five waves — up, down, up, down, up — in a rising sequence. Presently, Micro 5’s child wave is wave 1 of Submicro degree. So based on form, Micro 5 has a ways to go.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis25

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 25, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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