SP500 Analysis

2:30 p.m. New York time

Ninety minutes before the closing bell. The S&P 500 has spent the day so far trading slightly below the early morning high, 4279.50 on the futures and 4288.41 on the index. No change in the analysis. I’ve update the chart.

9:40 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight and shortly after the opening bell reached a new high, 4279.50.

What does it mean? The upward movement that began June 20 continues, within the large-scale rise that began February 23, 2020. The near-term target is 4500 or so.

What’s the alternative? Although I expect the rise from June 20 to end around the upper boundary of the price channel shown on the chart, there’s no guarantee that it won’t fall short of that target, and it could well move significantly beyond it. I treat price channels as guidance but not as certainties.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 2:30 p.m., 255-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise from June 20 is wave 5 of Micro degree within wave 5 of Subminuette degree, which began on May 13. Micro 5 appears to be in its 5th and final wave internally, which means it could reverse at any point into a wave 1 downtrend within a larger downward correction.

At larger degrees, the market is in an uptrend, wave 3 of Minor degree, that began with the February 23, 2020 completion of a corrective wave early in the pandemic, wave 2 of Minor degree. This is all happening within wave 5 of Intermediate degree, which began on December 26, 2018 and is taking the form of an expanding triangle.

For the price channel, I’ve chosen to track wave 5 of Minuette degree, which began May 4 from 3723.34. The upper boundary that provides a price target for Subminuette wave 5 presently is in the 4420s and will reach 4500 by mid-July.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 28, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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