SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued nudging higher, reaching 4291 on the futures and 4300.52 on the index. No change in the analysis. Chart updated.

9:40 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? Another day, another high on the S&P 500, which inched upward shortly after the opening bell to 4289 on the E-mini futures, 4299.80 on the index

What does it mean? The uptrend that began June 20 continues. It’s completion will mark the end not only of the near-term rise but of the uptrend that began after the crash early in the pandemic, in February 2020.

What’s the alternative? The price channel, racking the rise that began on March 4, provides target for the present uptrend, but there’s no guarantee that the price will reach that point, or even come close. And it good move well beyond that point. Price channels provide some analytical structure to a chart, but I treat them with a great deal of skepticism.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 5-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise from June 20 is wave 5 of Micro degree. The price channel tracks one degree higher, wave 5 of Subminuette degree. The rise that began in February 2020 is wave 3 of Minor degree, which is three degrees higher than Subminuette. Minor 3 is part of an expanding triangle that began in December 2018. The subsequent 4th wave in theory should approach the lower boundary of the triangle, presently in the low 2000s. And the Minor 5th wave after that will bring the price back up to highs at the upper boundary. Given that Minor wave 3 has lasted a year and four months so far, we’re talking about events that will take some time to unfold.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 29, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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