SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 declined from its overnight high, 4384.50, and then rose again, so far remaining below the high. By my count the decline is wave 2 of Subbitsy degree, and the subsequent rise is either wave B within Bitsy wave 2, which must remain below the high, or the start of wave 3 of Bitsy degree, which will move above the high. I’ve updated the chart.

9:40 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to a low of 4350 and then rose to a new high.

What does it mean? The rise continues the uptrend that began on July 12 within a much larger uptrend that began February 23, 2020.

What are the alternatives? The higher high removes the immediate ambiguities from the chart.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The move to a new high means that the 4th wave correction of Bitsy degree ended at last night’s low of 4350 and wave 5 of Bitsy degree is underway, with no limit on how high it can go, beyond the need that it remain proportional to other waves of that degree. The rise is part of an expanding diagonal triangle that began on December 26, 2018. The price is now at the upper boundary of the triangle.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 14, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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