SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued to fall during the day, reaching a low so far of 4385 on the futures and 4392.83 on the index. No change in the analysis. Chart updated.

9:40 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose slightly in overnight trading and then fell back by a bit, at the remaining about five points below the 4422.50 high of July 29.

What does it mean? The uptrend that began on July 19 from 4224 continues.

What’s the alternative? The July 29 peak can be seen as the end of the uptrend and subsequent decline the beginning of a larger-scale correction.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Under my principle analysis,. the present rise is wave 5 of Minuscule degree within wave 5 of Submicro degree within wave 3 of Micro degree, which began on May 13 from lower boundary of the Subminuette degree price channel, which was at 4029.25 at the time and has since risen higher.

The price in the present uptrend remains below the upper boundary of the channel, now at around 4960, and that is one reason why I think the uptrend is still underway.

Under the alternative analysis, the June 29 high marks the end of Micro wave 3, and the subsequent decline is the beginning movements of wave A of Submicro degree within wave 4 of Micro degree.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 2, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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