SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. Having peaked 15 minutes before the opening bell, the S&P 500 traded slightly lower throughout the day. By my principle count wave 3 of Subminuscule degree is still underway. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose as the opening bell approached, reaching a high of 4443.25 so far today. The high on the index so far is 4449.32.

What does it mean? The low level correction within the uptrend that began August 4 is complete and a final push upward has begun.

What’s the alternative? The pushup could be a connector, bonding together two corrective patterns.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise from August 4 is wave 3 of Subminuscule degree, and the correction within that wave is wave 4 of Bitsy degree. By my principle analysis, the overnight rise is the beginning of wave 5 of Bitsy degree, the final wave within Subminuscule 3. By my alternative analysis, the rise is an X wave, connecting two corrective patterns in a compound wave 4 correction. The first pattern was a Flat, and the second pattern most likely will be another Flat or a Zigzag.

The completion of Bitsy wave 5 will also mark the end of Subminuscule wave 3, which will be followed by a deeper correction of the higher Subminuscule degree, although it most likely will be trending sideways.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 11, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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