SP500 Analysis

9:30 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures initially declined slightly in overnight trading and then rose, to a high so far of 4545.75, within four points of Friday’s peak. The U.S. markets be closed today for the Labor Day holiday.

What does it mean? The price is in the very early stages of the middle portion of the rise that began on September 1, following the end of of a two-day correction. A rise above Friday’s high, 4549.50, will confirm this scenario.

What’s the alternative? The correction is still underway, having extended in a compound pattern.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:30 a.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? By my principal analysis wave 5 of Subbitsy degree began on September 1, at the end of Subbitsy wave 4, which began on August 31. This is all happening within wave 5 of Bitsy degree, which began on August 26. Completion of Bitsy wave 5 will also mark the end of 5th waves of increasingly large degree, up three levels to wave 5 of Submicro degree, which in turn will mark the end of Micro wave 3, which began on May 19.

My alternative analysis considers wave 4 of Subbitsy degree to still be underway. Having completed its first corrective pattern, Subbitsy 4 under this scenario is now working through a second corrective pattern in a compound structure.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 6, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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