SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures launched into a 32-point decline spanning an hour this morning and then a recovery to just below the original level in the two hours that followed. No change in the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose in overnight trading, remaining below Tuesday’s high, 4709.75.

What does it mean? The upward correction that began on November 10 is still underway, within a downward correction that began on November 5.

What’s the alternative? It’s possible that the correction from November 10 ended at yesterday’s high. Another alternative: If the price moves above the November 5 high of 4711.75, then the uptrend that began on October 27, and several larger uptrends that began before that, are still on the rise.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Under my principal analysis, the lowest degree that I’m tracking is wave 4 of Subbitsy degree — subscript {-10}. It is a subwave of wave A of Bitsy degree {-9} within wave 4 of Subminuscule degree {-8}. All of that comes within the parent, wave 3 of Minuscule degree {-7}, which began on October 4.

It’s possible that Tuesday’s peak ended wave 4 of Subbitsy degree. If that is so, then downtrending wave 5 of Subbitsy degree has begun.

If the price moves above the November 5 high, then wave 3 of Subminuscule degree is still underway.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 18, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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