Trader’s Notebook

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures spent the day trading just above the 38.2% retracement level. The very low level downward correction, wave 4{-12} has completed three waves and so has met the basic requirement for completion, and I’ve so marked it on the chart. Under this scenario, wave 5{-12} has begun its rise. It is situated within wave 1{-11} within wave 1{-10} within wave 5{-9} within wave C{-8} within wave 2{-7}. They are subwaves of wave C{-8}, which began on January 24.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose in overnight trading, returning to the 38.2% retracement of the decline that began on January 4. [Corrected to 38.2% rather than 50%.]

What does it mean? The final leg of the final leg of the upward correction that began on January 26 is underway.

What’s the alternative? It’s possible that the rise that began overnight will connect two corrective patterns — the one just finished and one to come — in a compound structure. Such compound corrections can link up to three corrective structures.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 15-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The overnight rise marked the beginning of wave 5{-9}, the final wave within wave C{-8}, an upward correction that began on January 26 from 4263.75. The end of wave 5{-9} will also be the end of its parent wave C{-9} and of the correction’s parent, wave 2{-7}, which began on January 24 from 4212.75.

The structure within wave 5{-9} is consistent with an uptrend. From the smaller wave degree to the larger, the current fractal positioning is wave 4{-12} to the downside within a series of rising waves, beginning with wave 1{-11} within wave 1{-10} within wave wave 5{-9}, all of which began February 14 from 4354.

For a broader view, see the chart in yesterday’s Trader’s Diary.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

  • 5{0} Intermediate, 12/21/2018, 2316.75 (up)
  • 3{1} Minor, 3/23/2018 2174 (up)
  • 5{-2} Minute, 10/4/2020, 4267.50 (up)
  • 4{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
  • A{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
  • 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
  • 1{-6} Submicro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
  • 2{-7} Minuscule, 1/24/2022, 4212.75 (up)
  • C{-8} Subminuscule, 1/26/2022, 4263.75 (up)
  • 5{-9} Bitsy, 2/14/2022, 4354 (up)
  • 1{-10} Subbitsy, 2/14/2022, 4354 (up)
  • 1{-11} Deci, 2/14/2022, 4354 (up)
  • 5{-12} Centi, 2/15/2022, 4468 (up)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it this way in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 15, 2022


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at