Trader’s Notebook

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 4130s. No change in the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures had an opening gap of 30 points when trading resumed overnight and has so far reached a high of 4115.

What does it mean? The upward correction has risen above the end of the the first leg of the downtrend that began on August 30. This is contrary to a rule of Elliott wave analysis, and so I’ve re-analyzed the chart.

Under the new principal analysis, the middle wave of the downtrend that began on August 16 ended on September 9, and an upward correction is underway. See the Elliott wave theory section below for greater detail.

What are the alternatives? None at present, as is usually the case when the chart is re-analyzed. Unsurprising, really, since a goal of the reanalysis is to eliminate those pesky ambiguities.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The reanalysis was required because, under the old analysis, wave 4{-10} moved above the end of wave 1{-10}, all within downtrending wave 3{-9}. Elliott wave theory has a strict rule against that, which means the map no longer matched the territory. So I redrew the map.

See Friday’s Trader’s Notebook for the chart showing the former analysis.

Under the new principal analysis, the rise that began on September 6 is wave 4{-8}. Typically, a 4th wave will have three subwaves, and the present rise is wave A{-9}. Wave 1{-8} ended on August 17 at 4255, which is 140 points above the high so far within wave 4{-8}: 4115.

I’ve updated the “We Are Here” list of waves presently underway, from wave 4{-8}, which began last week, to wave 5{+3}, which began in July 1932.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

  • S&P 500 Index:
  • 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
  • 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
  • 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
  • 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
  • 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022 4818.62 (down)
  • 1{-2} Minute, 1/4/2022 4818.62 (down)
  • S&P 500 Futures and index:
  • 1{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
  • S&P 500 Futures:
  • 1{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
  • 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
  • 3{-6} Submicro, 8/16/2022, 4325.28 (down)
  • 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/16/2022, 4325.28 (down)
  • 4{-8} Subminuscule, 9/6/2022, 3883.50 (up)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 12, 2022


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at