9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 futures reached a new high at 7208.50 during the first few hours of overnight trading, then pulled back into the 7180s. Since then, the futures have fluctuated mainly in the 7180s and 7190s.

That keeps the price above the upper boundary of the expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave Theory terms, wave D{-5} within the larger wave 4{-4} expanding triangle remains underway. The overnight high extended the D{-5} rise, but the subsequent pullback has so far been shallow enough to leave the count unchanged.

The main question remains whether this is a temporary push beyond the triangle boundary before wave E{-5} begins, or whether the market is separating far enough above the boundary that the present triangle map will need to be reconsidered.

For now, the map still works. The price is above the boundary, but it has not yet moved far enough away from it to make the expanding-triangle interpretation untenable.

Decision Points. A move above 7208.50 would extend wave D{-5} and keep upward pressure in place. Continued trade in the 7180s and 7190s would leave the market in a waiting pattern, still above the triangle boundary but not yet breaking decisively free. A decline back below the upper boundary, now roughly in the upper 7160s to low 7170s, would be the first sign that D{-5} may have ended and that declining wave E{-5} may be beginning.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com