3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures zigzagged during the session, remaining within the boundaries of the sharp overnight decline.

Elliott Wave Theory. Although the price remains down on the day, the decline has not been sufficient to change the analysis. Rising wave D{-5} appears still to be underway, although the alternative labeling — that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and falling wave E{-5} is now in progress — remains possible. Neither labeling has been validated.

Decision Points. A decline below the overnight low of 7468.50 would strengthen the case that falling wave E{-5} is underway, although stronger confirmation would require a deeper break toward the June 11 low of 7232.25 and the upper boundary of wave 4{-4}.

A rise above the overnight range, and especially a move back toward the June 15 high of 7648.75, would strengthen the case that rising wave D{-5} is still underway.

The session’s back-and-forth movement leaves the analysis unchanged. The chart remains in a verification zone rather than a confirmed turn.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell sharply overnight, reaching 7468.50, and then rose back into the 7500s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The same ambiguity remains. Rising wave D{-5} within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction, may still be underway. Alternatively, wave D{-5} may have ended on June 15 at 7648.75, with falling wave E{-5} now underway.

Decision Points. The overnight decline increases the likelihood that wave E{-5} has begun, but it does not verify that labeling. The price remains well above the June 11 low of 7232.25 and above the upper boundary of wave 4{-4}, the expanding triangle.

A continued decline, especially one that moves below 7468.50 and then begins to challenge the June 11 low, would strengthen the case that wave E{-5} is underway. A rise back above the overnight range and toward the June 15 high would keep alive the interpretation that wave D{-5} is still rising.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 8, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com