3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching into the 7590s before pulling back slightly.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rise gives greater credence to the interpretation that rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30, remains underway. An alternative interpretation is that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and that falling wave E{-5} began on that date.

At this point, neither interpretation has been verified. Both are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway. Until that happens, today’s rise is constructive but not decisive.

A turn back down before reaching 7648.75 would keep the alternative interpretation alive, that falling wave E{-5} began on June 15. A decline below the recent 7468.50 low would strengthen that alternative, and a fall below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger operational evidence that wave E{-5} is underway.

The price is moving closer to a decision point, but it has not reached one. The best course remains to wait for verification rather than anticipate it.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching into the 7550s. The rise left the price slightly below the prior day’s high. Weekly jobless claims added no major disruption to the picture: initial claims declined, the four-week average also declined, continuing claims rose slightly, and the insured unemployment rate was unchanged.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory labeling remains uncertain. Is rising wave D{-5} still underway, or did it end on June 15 at the 7648.75 peak, with falling wave E{-5} beginning at that point? There has been no verification for either scenario.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway. Until then, the overnight rise is constructive but not decisive.

A decline below the recent 7468.50 low would put pressure back on the wave E{-5} interpretation. A fall below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger operational evidence that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com