3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose into the 7620s after the Federal Reserve released its Monetary Policy Report to Congress.

Elliott Wave Theory. Neither rising wave D{-5} nor falling wave E{-5} has been confirmed. The session rise remains below the June 15 peak of 7648.75. The ambiguity is whether wave D{-5} has continued beyond that peak or ended there, with falling wave E{-5} beginning afterward.

The Monetary Policy Report adds some fundamental support to the possibility that falling wave E{-5} is underway. Its picture of persistent inflation, limited scope for near-term rate cuts and elevated asset valuations could make the market more vulnerable to a broader decline. The report has produced no significant immediate response in the price, however, and it does not verify the Elliott Wave labeling. It is best treated as a secondary factor that raises the plausibility of wave E{-5}, while the chart and decision points remain the primary evidence.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway and would postpone the beginning of wave E{-5}.

A renewed decline would strengthen the alternative interpretation. A break below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle, presently in the low 7200s, would provide operational confirmation that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and wave E{-5} is underway.

Until either decision point is crossed, the chart remains ambiguous.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to 7568.50 and then rose to 7595.50, covering a relatively short distance in either direction.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to offer two possible interpretations. Either rising wave D{-5} remains underway, or it ended on June 15 and falling wave E{-5} is in progress.

What is clear is that the parent wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, is approaching its end. Wave D{-5} is the penultimate subwave, and wave E{-5} will be the final subwave. Completion of wave E{-5} will also mark the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of rising wave 5{-4}.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a structure that grows wider as it progresses. Wave 5{-4} will take the form of a dominant trend composed of five subwaves. Waves 1, 3 and 5 will move in the direction of the trend, with wave 3 often the longest and never the shortest of those three waves.

I would expect wave 5{-4} eventually to carry the price noticeably above the highest point reached during wave 4{-4}. Elliott Wave rules do not require it to rise above the peak of wave D{-5}, but such pushes above are not rare..

Decision Points. A sustained rise above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway and would postpone the beginning of wave E{-5}.

A renewed decline would strengthen the alternative interpretation. A break below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle, presently in the low 7200s, would provide operational confirmation that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and wave E{-5} is underway.

Until either boundary is broken, movement within the present range provides little basis for choosing between the two interpretations.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave 4{-4}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and its subwaves. has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 10, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com