9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply after Tuesday’s closing bell, reaching 7501, and then fell to 7438.50. They rebounded into the 7480s before turning lower again as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees wave 4{-4}, a nine-month-old downward correction, moving through the late stages of the form it has taken, an expanding triangle. The question is whether rising wave D{-5}, the triangle’s next-to-last segment, remains underway, or whether falling wave E{-5}, its final segment, has begun.

When wave E{-5} is complete, it will also mark the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of rising wave 5{-4}.

Until the ambiguity clears from the chart, there is no verified certainty as to which wave—D or E—is presently underway.

Decision Points. Near term, a break above 7501 would reverse the overnight weakness and turn attention back toward the July 16 high at 7632 and the June 15 high at 7648.75. A break below 7438.50 would extend the immediate decline and bring the June 26 low at 7357.25 into view. A sustained move above 7632 would strengthen the D{-5} interpretation, while a decisive break below 7357.25 would materially strengthen the case that E{-5} has begun. Between those levels, the larger structure remains ambiguous.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 29, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com