9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to 7324 late in yesterday’s session. They then rebounded overnight and after the opening bell, reaching 7415 before slipping back into the 7400s.

What does it mean? The decline invalidated the prior Elliott Wave labeling. Under that count, rising wave C{-7} had begun at the June 26 low, 7357.25. Once the futures moved beneath that starting point, the proposed structure was no longer permissible. The map no longer matched the terrain, and the map had to be redrawn.

After reviewing the subwaves within C{-7} and the waves surrounding it, I concluded that wave C{-7} ended at the June 15 peak, 7648.75.

The end of C{-7} also completed its parent, wave C{-6}, which in turn was the final subwave of rising wave D{-5}, the rise that began March 30 at 6353.25.

At the moment wave D{-5} ended, falling wave E{-5} began. The ambiguity that has beset the chart for weeks is over: Wave E{-5} is underway.

All of this is happening within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began October 29, 2025. Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, in which each successive swing exceeds the preceding swing moving in the same direction. Wave E{-5} is the fifth and final leg of that structure.

Wave E{-5} will contain the usual rises and falls produced by waves of progressively smaller degree. One degree lower, falling wave A{-6} is now underway.

The normal expectation is that wave E{-5} will travel toward the expanding triangle’s lower boundary, shown in blue on the chart. That boundary is presently in the 6190s and slopes slightly lower with the passage of time. A decline from the June 15 peak to today’s boundary would approach 20%, producing what traders would experience as a significant bear market.

The boundary should be treated as a guide rather than an exact target. Wave E{-5} could stop short of the line, or it could briefly overshoot it before reversing. Time will tell which course it follows.

The end of wave E{-5} will also complete wave 4{-4} and begin rising wave 5{-4}. Under the normal Elliott Wave expectation, wave 5{-4} would eventually carry the futures beyond the high at which wave 4{-4} began. The June 15 peak at 7648.75 would be an important waypoint during that rise, rather than its ultimate theoretical objective.

Decision Points. The rebound from 7324 is the immediate test. A break beneath 7324 would show that the decline has resumed and would bring the June 11 low at 7232.25 into view. A break beneath that level would provide stronger evidence that wave A{-6} is progressing downward. On the upside, 7501 is the first nearby obstacle. A move above it would allow the rebound to extend but would not overturn the larger count. The wave E{-5} interpretation remains valid unless the futures rise above 7648.75, which would require the chart to be reconsidered again. The blue boundary in the 6190s remains a long-range destination, not a precise near-term price target.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on falling wave E{-5}, the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. And the wave that came before it, rising wave D{-5}. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:38 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• E{-5} Micro, 7/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 30, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com