9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to a low of 7543.50 early overnight, then worked its way to a high, 7567.75, as the opening bell approached.Afterward it fell to the 7540s

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory considers the rise to be an upward correction within falling wave E{-5}, which is in turn the final subwave within wave 4{-4}, a larger downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

I’ve labelled the upward correction as wave B{-8}. The degree of the B wave is at best a guess. As always within a new wave, the size of the initial subwaves is at best a guess. It could well be that B{-8} will turn out to be B{-7} or even B{-6}. See the Reading the Chart section below for an explanation of the degree numbers in curly brackets.

A characteristic of expanding triangles is that each wave travels further than the prior wave in the same direction. The last complete falling wave was wave C{-5}, which ended on March 30 at 6353.25. Wave E{-5}, if it follows the normal course of things, can be expected to fall below that level, ending at the lower boundary, which grows lower each day. In some cases it could end before reaching the boundary, or it might move beyond the boundary, such as happened with wave D{-5}.

In any case, wave E{-5} will likely be underway for a long while — months.

Decision Points. 

The rise from the July 29 low remains intact, with no clear evidence yet that wave B{-8} has ended. A fall below the overnight low of 7543.50 would be the first indication that the immediate advance has stalled, but would not by itself confirm completion of the correction.

A sustained reversal that begins breaking the rising structure from 7324 would provide stronger evidence that wave B{-8} is ending and that the next decline within wave E{-5} is beginning. A move below 7324 would confirm that the downward trend has resumed, although the degree of the developing waves could still require revision.

Until the market produces that reversal, the chart argues for patience. The larger trend is downward, but the upward correction has no clearly established endpoint.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the end of rising wave D{-5} on June 15 and the early stages of falling wave E{-5}, both subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• A{-7} Minuscule, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• B{-8} (no name), 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 3, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com