3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, so far reaching into the 7780s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The extent of the rise beyond the June 15 peak requires that the chart be relabeled, as follows:

• Wave D{-5} is still underway. It did not end on June 15. Wave E{-5} therefore did not begin on that date and remains in the future.
• Wave A{-7} ended on June 11. It is now labeled as the first subwave of wave B{-6}, whose endpoint has moved later, as described below.
• Wave B{-7} ended on June 15. In the earlier version, a series of waves through D{-5} had ended on that date. That interpretation no longer applies.
• Wave C{-7}, and therefore wave B{-6}, ended on July 29. Together, A{-7}, B{-7} and C{-7} form a probable running Flat. The change removes all waves labeled at degree {-8} in the earlier version.
• Wave C{-6} began its rise on July 29 and remains in progress, with no way to know with certainty how high it might fly. It is the final subwave of wave D{-5}. When C{-6} ends, D{-5} will also end and falling wave E{-5} will begin. If E{-5} follows the usual pattern, it will carry the price toward the lower boundary of the expanding triangle, currently projected into the 6180s, and most likely below.

And that is the new chart. In retrospect, the old labeling fit the chart as it then appeared, but subsequent price movement proved it wrong. As is so often the case with the ambiguities that accompany Elliott Wave Theory, I do not see how I could have foreseen the way the chart would subsequently play out. That is not an excuse, but an observation.

Decision Points

Wave C{-6} and wave D{-5} remain underway, leaving the upside open and providing no reliable price target. A high price alone will not be evidence that they have ended; confirmation will require a reversal with enough structure to support the beginning of wave E{-5}. Until that happens, the immediate trend remains upward. Once E{-5} is confirmed, the lower boundary of the expanding triangle becomes the principal downside destination, although its projected level will continue to decline as time passes.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gently overnight, then shot upward shortly before the start of the session. The rise carried the price to 7666, a new all-time high in the advance that began March 30, and after the opening bell the price moved beyond 7670.

What does it mean? The rise may affect the Elliott Wave analysis. The price moved above the prior high of 7648.75 on June 15, which the analysis had interpreted as the peak of rising wave D{-5} and the beginning of falling wave E{-5}. Both are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a corrective structure that differs from the usual five-subwave trend and three-subwave correction.

First impact: The new high brings ambiguity back to the chart. It is again possible that wave D{-5} remains underway. That interpretation has not been confirmed, however, and June 15 may still mark the orthodox end of D{-5}, with wave E{-5} underway despite today’s higher high.

Second impact: If wave E{-5} is underway, then A{-8}, B{-8} and the eventual C{-8} may form a Flat correction. B{-8} has moved above the starting point of A{-8}, behavior allowed within an expanded Flat. A downward C{-8} would be required to complete that pattern.

Decision Points.  The character of the next move will help distinguish the alternatives. Continued strong and impulsive upward movement would increase the likelihood that D{-5} never ended on June 15. A sustained reversal from the new high would preserve the interpretation that B{-8} is nearing completion within wave E{-5}, with C{-8} likely to follow to the downside.

For now, the new high creates ambiguity rather than resolving the chart. Both interpretations remain in play.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the end of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 4, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com