3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to fall before the session began and picked up the pace as the opening bell sounded. From the overnight high, 7796, the price has so far fallen to 7738.75 and then risen into the 7740s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The fall has strengthened the analysis that sees rising wave D{-5} as having ended on August 5 and falling wave E{-5} as having begun. Strengthened, not confirmed. The Decision Points section describes the prices and decisions involved.

Decision Points. The first important level on the downside is 7724.25, the August 6 low. A break below that level would strengthen the case that the decline from the August 5 peak is more than an internal correction within rising C{-6}, but it would not by itself confirm that E{-5} is underway.

The decisive downside level is 7324, the July 29 starting point of rising C{-6}. A decline below 7324 would invalidate the present C{-6} structure and confirm that C{-6} and D{-5} have ended and falling E{-5} has begun.

On the upside, a move above the August 5 peak, 7820.25, would settle the question in the opposite direction: D{-5} would still be underway, with C{-6} continuing its rise.

Until one of those decisive levels is broken, the chart remains labeled for rising D{-5}, while the possibility that E{-5} has begun continues to gain weight.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures, as is often the case recently, reached their low early in overnight trading and then rose, reaching a high of 7796 as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Under Elliott Wave Theory, wave C{-6} is the final subwave of wave D{-5}, which began on March 30. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Internally, the structure within wave C{-6} lacks clarity to a certain extent. A C-wave such as this one will have five subwaves. The August 5 peak, 7820.25, can be counted as the end of wave C{-7} and the beginning of downward wave D{-7}. At one degree lower, however, the peak can be counted as the end of wave C{-8}, with downward wave D{-8} now underway. Either interpretation leaves wave C{-6} incomplete and additional upside ahead.

There is also a more bearish possibility: The five-wave structure of C{-6} may have been completed at the August 5 peak. In that scenario, C{-6} and D{-5} ended together, and falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The interpretation that leaves C{-6} incomplete seems to better match the relative size of the waves that came before, and that is what I have used on the chart. However, none of the possibilities has been verified. The central question remains: Is rising wave D{-5} still underway, or has falling wave E{-5} begun?

Decision Points. A sustained move above the August 5 peak, 7820.25, would confirm that wave C{-6}, and therefore D{-5}, remains underway. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that D{-5} has ended, but the decline so far has not gone far enough to confirm that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on rising wave C{-6} with 1-hour bars in order to better see the internal structure.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com