3:30 p.m. New York tiime

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to fall immediately after the session opened, dropping from 7794 to 7763.95, and then returned — slowly — to the 7780s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The primary analysis remains unchanged. Rising wave C{-6} is still underway, along with its parent wave D{-5}. The alternative possibility that both waves ended on August 5 remains, but is unconfirmed.

Decision Points. A rise above the August 5 all-time high, 7820.25, would eliminate the alternative that wave D{-5} ended there and confirm that the rise has continued. A fall below Tuesday’s low, 7738.75, would strengthen the alternative analysis that wave D{-5} ended August 5 and falling wave E{-5} has begun. It would strengthen that analysis, not confirm it.

9:35 a..m. New York time

Inflation annluncement chart: The market response.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:01 a.m., 5-minute bars with volume]

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures responded with confusion when new inflation numbers were published an hour before the opening bell. The response took the form of a violent two-way movement within one minute that carried the price between 7788 and 7760.25 before settling well above the low but below the initial high. The word that came to my mind as I watched it unfold was “confusion.” The chart above shows the period surrounding the release, in close-up.

The price dropped sharply as the opening bell sounded, from 7794 to the 7770s so far.

What does it mean? Despite the drama, Elliott Wave Theory sees no significant change in the analysis. Rising wave C{-6} is still underway, along with its rising parent wave D{-5}. The possibility that those two waves ended on August 5 remains. Neither analysis is confirmed.

Decision Points. A rise above the August 5 all-time high, 7820.25, would eliminate the possibility that wave D{-5} ended there and confirm that the rise has continued beyond that point. On the downside, a fall below Tuesday’s low, 7738.75, would strengthen the alternative analysis that wave D{-5} ended August 5 and falling wave E{-5} has begun. It would strengthen that analysis, not confirm it.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the wave C{-6} and portion of wave D{-5} that came before.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com