3:30 p.m. NewYork time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 rose to a new peak today, 7838.50, eclipsing the prior peak set on August 5, 7820.25.

Elliott Wave Theory. The new peak, according to Elliott Wave Theory analysis, verifies that wave C{-6} and its parent wave D{-5} are both underway. Both are rising waves within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

Wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form. It will at its completion have five subwaves. Today’s new high confirms that the final wave — declining wave E{-5} — lies in the future.

It is the nature of expanding triangles that each rising wave moves higher than the prior rising wave, and each falling wave moves lower than its predecessor. The blue lines on the chart connects the earlier waves to form upper and lower boundaries. As in life, Elliott Wave Theory boundaries are sometimes not honored, and such is the case with wave D{-5}, which broke above the boundary in April.

Likewise, waves sometimes come to an end before reaching the boundary. There’s no way to tell if the future wave E{-5} willl turn out to be a truncated wave.

Decision Points. A rise above today’s high, 7838.50, would show that wave C{-6} and wave D{-5} are continuing to extend. Today’s high is now the earliest possible candidate for the end of both waves and the beginning of falling wave E{-5}, but the chart has not yet produced a meaningful downside price level that would confirm such a turn.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gently overnight, whipsawing briefly when the Producer Price Index was published an hour before the opening bell. The futures reached an overnight high of 7794, and then as the session began, dropped sharply to the 7780s.

What does it mean? The whipsaw was clearly the work of algorithms and ended essentially where it had begun, leaving Elliott Wave Theory’s analysis unchanged. Rising wave C{-6} is underway within rising wave D{-5}, both within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

That interpretation has not been verified. It remains possible that wave C{-6} ended on August 5, bringing wave D{-5} to an end and beginning falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave within wave 4{-4}.

Decision Points. A rise above the August 5 high, 7820.25, would eliminate the possibility that wave D{-5} ended there and would confirm that rising wave C{-6} remains underway. A decline below the post-August 5 low, 7738.75, would strengthen the alternative analysis that wave D{-5} has ended and falling wave E{-5} has begun, but would not by itself confirm that count.

The Chart. Today’s afternoon chart focuses on the entire of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has been underway since October of last year.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com