9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise when trading resumed, opening at 7713.75 and reaching into the 7770s as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory is clear on the larger waves but uncertain on the smallest.

Big waves underway:

• Wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.
• Wave E{-5}, a falling wave that began on August 13 and is the final subwave within wave 4{-4}.
• Wave A{-6}, also falling, began on August 13 and is the first subwave within wave E{-5}.

Smaller subwave:

Falling wave A{-7}, the first subwave of wave A{-6}, may still be underway Or, wave A{-7} may have ended at 7575 on September 16, with rising wave B{-7}, the second of three subwaves, now underway.

The situation remains ambiguous. The rise to 7771.25 has retraced nearly three-quarters of the decline from the August 13 high, 7838.50, to the September 16 low, 7575. The farther the price rises, the more likely it becomes that wave B{-7} is underway, although the move has not yet provided verification.

Decision Points. Continued strength would add evidence that wave B{-7} is underway. A renewed decline would leave the smaller-degree count unresolved until the emerging structure makes clear whether wave A{-7} continued or a completed B{-7} has given way to the next declining subwave. A move back to the August 13 high, 7838.50, would require reassessment of the larger count.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 21, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com