9:35 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight high of 7862.25 and then declined to 7836. The price subsequently recovered, exceeding the earlier high to reach 7864, before turning downward again. So far, the net movement has been sideways.
What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees rising wave D{-5} as continuing, despite the lack of directional progress.
Internally, wave D{-5} is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}, which in turn is in its final subwave, rising wave 5{-7}.
At the next degree lower, we find an explanation for why wave D{-5} remains the working count.
Wave 5{-7} is in its initial subwave, rising wave 1{-8}, which is undergoing a downward correction, wave 2{-9}, that began October 6 from 7897.50.
The correction has developed into a series of smaller waves. One interpretation places the present decline in wave C{-10}, the final downward movement of the correction. Another places it within wave B{-10}, which would leave additional corrective movement ahead.
In either case, before wave D{-5} can end, wave 5{-7} must end. And before that can happen, wave 1{-8} must complete its remaining subwaves: rising wave 3{-9}, corrective wave 4{-9}, and a final rise in wave 5{-9}.
So yes, wave D{-5} is approaching its end. But it still has work to do. As Robert Frost wrote in his 1923 poem, Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening, the wave D{-5} persona might be muttering:
“The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.”
Decision Points. The October 6 high of 7897.50 remains the immediate upside reference point. A sustained rise above that level would indicate renewed upward progress within the larger wave structure. Meanwhile, the 7836 overnight low provides a near-term reference for judging whether the downward correction is continuing.
The working count remains rising wave D{-5}. Its eventual completion would open the way for declining wave E{-5}, the final wave of the expanding triangle that began in October 2025.
Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 2-hour bars with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
- S&P 500 Index:
- 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
- 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
- 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
- 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
- 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
- 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
- S&P 500 E-mini futures
- 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
- 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
- D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
- C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
- 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
- 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 13, 2026
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.
Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.
Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.
All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
License
Based on work atwww.timbovee.com
