Trader’s Notebook: S&P 500

Tim BoveeLeave a comment

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began falling from Wednesday’s session high of 7812.25 and continued their decline overnight, reaching into the 7710s before recovering slightly to the 7720s.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees Wednesday’s session rise as a rising B wave, a relatively small correction within a larger downward movement.

The B wave appears to have ended, giving way to a falling C wave. Both are several degrees smaller than declining wave E{-5}, the final wave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Wave E{-5} began from the October 6 high of 7897.50 and remains underway.

Decision Points

The overnight decline strengthens the interpretation that the rising B wave has ended and a falling C wave is underway.

The immediate question is whether the small recovery from the overnight low is merely a correction within the decline or the beginning of a more substantial upward movement.

A break below the overnight low would support the view that the falling C wave continues. A sustained rise above Wednesday’s high of 7812.25 would require reconsideration of the placement of the B-wave endpoint.

The larger Elliott wave structure remains unchanged. Wave E{-5} continues its decline toward completion of the expanding triangle. A rise above 7897.50, the starting point of wave E{-5}, would invalidate the present interpretation.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

  • S&P 500 Index:
  • 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
  • 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
  • 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
  • 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
  • 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
  • 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
  • S&P 500 E-mini futures
  • 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
  • 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
  • A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

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