9:35 a.m. New York time
What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall overnight, reaching into the 7650s, a level last seen in mid-September. The decline extends the downward movement that began after the October 6 peak at 7897.50.
What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the decline as a falling A wave buried several degrees deep within declining wave E{-5}, the final wave of an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025.
Wave E{-5} is expected to unfold in three major subwaves, A{-6}, B{-6} and C{-6}. The present decline is part of the first of those waves, A{-6}.
Decision Points. A decline below the overnight low in the 7660s would extend the present A wave and establish a new reference point for judging the next reversal.
A rise above 7812.25, the October 21 high, would provide evidence that the present A wave may have ended and a rising B wave has begun. Confirmation would require a recognizable corrective structure.
A rise above 7897.50, the October 6 peak, would challenge the interpretation that wave E{-5} is underway and require a reassessment of the larger wave count.
The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
- S&P 500 Index:
- 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
- 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
- 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
- 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
- 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
- 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
- S&P 500 E-mini futures
- 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
- 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
- E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
- A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 23, 2026
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.
Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.
Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.
All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
License
Based on work atwww.timbovee.com
