9:40 a.m. New York time
What’s Happening Now?
The S&P 500 E-mini futures recovered modestly overnight after Friday’s decline to 7648.50, the lowest level since mid-September.
The recovery has been uneven, with prices fluctuating mainly between the 7660s and 7690s. Shortly after 9 a.m. Eastern time, the futures were trading in the 7680s.
Despite the overnight rise, the broader downward trend remains intact.
What Does It Mean?
Elliott Wave Theory sees the decline from the October 6 peak at 7897.50 as part of falling wave E{-5}, the final wave within an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025.
Within E{-5}, the initial declining subwave, A{-6}, remains underway.
The overnight recovery may represent a small rising B wave within that decline. However, the movement has been overlapping and irregular, leaving the degree of the correction uncertain.
The 2-hour chart continues to show a succession of lower highs and lower lows. Nothing in the overnight movement requires a revision of the working Elliott Wave count.
Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7712.25, the recent high shown on the 5-minute chart, would strengthen the case for a more substantial upward correction within the larger decline.
A fall below Friday’s low of 7648.50 would extend the downward movement and reinforce the interpretation that falling wave A{-6} remains in progress.
Between those levels, the immediate direction remains unresolved. The larger Elliott Wave structure, however, continues to favor the downside.
The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.
- S&P 500 Index:
- 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
- 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
- 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
- 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
- 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
- 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
- S&P 500 E-mini futures
- 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
- 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
- E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
- A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 23, 2026
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.
Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.
Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.
All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Based on work atwww.timbovee.com
