12:05 p.m. New York time

Two shares positions, IBP and MGRC, dropped off of the Upgrades and Revisions screen, and I exited each for a profit.

I added SNE to the Revisions portfolio for a $65.26 debit.

IBP sold for $69.37, an 86 cent gain per share. The position produced a 1.2% return over 22 for a +21% annual rate.

MGRC went $74.57, a gain of $1.53 per share. The position produced a 2.1% return over two days, or a +382% annual rate.

RH had dropped off of the Revisions screen earlier, but I held on to capture earnings after Monday’s closing bell. The symbol remains off of the Revisions screen but continues to appear on the Momentum screen. So I’m hanging on to the position and will consider adding the following to my rules:

A positions that drops off of the principal screen but continues to appear on a secondary screen that the trader is following can, at the trader’s discretion, continue to be held until it drops off of the secondary screen.

In the case of my operations, for the present at least, I’ve chosen Upgrades and Revisions as my principal screen because it’s forward looking, based as it is on analysts’ efforts to forecast earnings.

I’m continuing Momentum as by secondary screen. It is backward looking — how quickly the price of a stock been rising over several time frames. But its appearance on the Momentum screen implies that the uptrend is continuing.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 4, 2019

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1:45 p.m. New York time

Today’s screen for the upgrades and revisions portfolio produced two new symbols. I entered positions on both, AEIS at $61.44 per share and CNXM at $14.49.

In my options holdings, the underlying for my short iron condor on APA moved below the profit zone. It, along with XOP, will trigger an exit whenever they return to profitability, no matter how small. Meanwhile, expiration is Dec. 20, and I shall continue to hold.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 3, 2019

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12:25 p.m. New York time

I’ve entered a shares position in MGRC for a $73.04 debit and in MOMO for a $37.35 debit.

12:05 p.m. New York time

Shares trading:

No changes to my momentum portfolio or my income portfolio.

In the upgrades and revisions portfolio, RH has dropped off the screen. However, I shall hold it through the earnings announcement after the closing bell on Dec. 4. Two new positions have shown up on the screen, MGRC and MOMO. I shall enter positions on both today.

11:40 a.m. New York time

Friday, as I’ve noted, was management day, the day, 21 days prior to expiration, when I exit all profitable positions. Because of the Thanksgiving Day holiday, I moved my management of positions to today. And…. There’s nothing to manage.

Both of my remaining short iron condor positions are unprofitable to a large degree at the moment. The percent of maximum potential profit is in negative territory, -124.8% for APA and -63.8% for XOP. Both are in the energy sector. APA remains within its profit zone at expiration. XOP is below the zone.

At this point my APA and XOP positions go into sudden death mode. This means that I exit a position when it shows a profit, no matter how small.

My rules also require that I exit losing positions whenever they are more than a day away from profitability based on the rate of change metric. I’m modifying that rule this time, as a an experiment. I’ve gotten the impression with some trades that I would have had better results — smaller losses or a return to profit — if I had waited until the week of expiration to exit.  After all, time decay continues to work in my favor, and a lot can happen in three weeks. So my plan is monitor the losing positions, exit if they become profitable, and otherwise hold them until the week of their expiration on Dec. 20.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 2, 2019

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11:40 a.m. New York time

I’ve updated TLT Analysis with results.

I have two positions expiring December 20 remaining: APA and XOP. Neither is showing a profit at this point and so I shall hold on to them until closer to expiration.

11:15 a.m. New York time

I’ve exited my short iron condor position on TLT for 11% of maximum potential profit. My goal had been to manage positions on Monday, when the markets return to liquidity after their holiday slumber. However, TLT pays dividends monthly and goes ex-dividend on Monday. So I exited the position to avoid any risk of early exercise. I shall update the analysis shortly.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 29, 2019

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1:10 p.m. New York time

I spent the day reworking and filling out my shares portfolios into a form more to my liking.

The Momentum Portfolio has turned out to be far too volatile for my liking. A symbol meets the criteria, only to drop out the next day. I’ve decided to give it axe.

So I eliminated the losing positions, MUSA and ORN, while retaining one winning position, SEM. Another position, NSIT, appears in both the Momentum and Analyst Updates/Revisions portfolios, and I eliminated it from Momentum. It will be judged solely by the Updates/Revisions criteria.

MUSA produced a loss of less than half a percent over nine days for a +1.7% annual rate. ORN produced a -1.0% loss , also over nine days, for a -30% annual rate.

One tenant of the Zacks trading methodology, which I use for shares, is to hold all of the symbols presently meeting a screen’s requirements. In order to bring the Updates/Revisions portfolio into compliance, I added a number of positions: AMAT, AUY, DECK, EBMT, FCN, FSBW and RH.

A heads up: Friday is the day I manage profitable options positions, 21 days before expiration. However, since it is a truncated market day, as the day after the Thanksgiving Day holiday, I shall manage positions on the following Monday in order to increase the odds in favor of a liquid market.

That’s it. To all American readers, have a wonderful Thanksgiving feast! To the rest, have a wonderful rest of the week and a fantastic weekend!

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 27, 2019

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3:30 p.m. New York time

XLU Analysis updated with results

3:05 p.m. New York time

The exit order on the rest of my XLU short iron condor position has been filled. I’ll update the analysis with results shortly.

2:05 p.m. New York time

My short iron condor position on XLU reached close to half of its maximum potential profit, and I attempted an exit, receiving a fill on half the contracts. The order to exit the rest remains active.

10:05 a.m. New York time

I’ve updated XLY Analysis with results.

9:50 a.m. New York time

My short iron condor position on XLY reached 50% of maximum potential profit and I exited. I shall update the analysis shortly with results.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 26, 2019

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2 p.m. New York time

Two shares left the momentum portfolio screen. I exited AMED at $157.63 per share, a $1.30 profit, and SAH at $32.71, a 17-cent loss.

The momentum portfolio continues to show its tendency to whipsaw. There may be use momentum screens, but this isn’t one of them. I’m phasing it out, replacing exit with buys in the upgrades and revisions portfolio, which so far has been more stable.

To that end, I entered share positions in the upgrades and revisions portfolio on AEL, for $28.98, and DCO, for $48.48.

AMED produced a 0.8% return over one day for a 303% annual rate. SAH showed a 0.5% loss over one day for a -188% annual rate.

The shares portfolios line-ups as the week draws to a close:

Momentum plays: MUSA, NSIT, ORN and SEM. (NSIT also shows on the revisions portfolio).

Upgrades and revisions plays: AEL, BMCH, CNNE, CRAI, DCO, IBP, MHO, NSIT and SSD.

Income: DX, HYG.

Of my six short iron condor options positions, I exited one, GDX, on Thursday. The remaining five all remain within their zones of profit at expiration.

TLT, XLU and XLY are showing a profit, although they are below half of maximum potential profit, my exit trigger. XLU is closest at 43.5% of max.

APA and XOP aren’t profitable at present, with XOP at worst shape as it wanders in and out of profitability.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 22, 2019

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1 p.m. New York time

I’ve updated the GDX Analysis with results.

12:40 p.m. New York time

I exited my short iron condor position on GDX at 51.7% of maximum potential profit. Analysis update to come shortly.

Turning to shares, I exited CROX for $34.58, up $1.58, in the momentum portfolio, and also EIG, at $41.57, down 75 cents, and FAF, at $62.81, up 34 cents, from the upgrades and revisions portfolio.

SSD in the momentum portfolio also gave a sell signal, but after I entered the position as a momentum play, the symbol also appeared in the upgrade and revisions portfolio, where it still shows in the screen. So I’m continuing to hold the position in the latter portfolio.

I balanced the portfolios at six issues each, entering AMED, at $156.33, SAH at $32.88 and SEM at $21.35 in the momentum portfolio. The transfer of SSD  and exit of EIG and FAF leaves the upgrades and revisions portfolio with six symbols.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 21, 2019

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11:55 a.m. New York time

In the upgrades and revisions portfolio, AUY dropped off the screen results and I exited for $3.53 per share, a gain of seven cents. I replaced it with CRAI, entering at $51.04.

AUY produced 2.0% return over a one-day holding period for an annual rate of +738%.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 20, 2019

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3:35 p.m. New York time

Two exits, AXE from the momentum portfolio for $85.07 and UCTT from the upgrade and revision portfolio for $22.65. Both were losses.

Given the turnover in the momentum portfolio, I replaced both vacancies with upgrade and revision trades, BCMH for an entry debit of $29.24 and EIG, $42.32.

AXE produced a 0.8% loss over one day for a -283% annual rate. EIG’s loss was 1.4% over four days for a -131.04% annual rate.

Given the high turnover in the momentum portfolio, I’m moving all funds freed by momentum exits to the upgrade and revision portfolio, which is less volatile.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 19, 2019

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