10:10 a.m. New York time

SPY at the market open is trading within yesterday’s range. I don’t expect any trades today.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 26, 2018

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11:55 a.m. New York time

Here’s a very close in look at the Elliott wave analysis internals of SPY wave 4 to the downside at the Subminuette degree {-1}, which began on July 18, and with it, of wave 4 at the Submicro degree {-3}.

The SPY chart covers two days with one minute bars.

11:40 a.m. New York time

No trades in sight today.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 25, 2018

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11:05 a.m. New York time

This morning’s gap to the upside on SPY confirms the Elliott wave analysis in the charts posted on Monday: The 4th wave of Subminuette degree {-1} to the downside ended on July 23 and wave 5 of the same degree has begun.

When complete, it will be the end of wave C of the Minuette degree, and possibly of the wave 2 counter-trend correction to the upside at the Minute degree {+1}.

Often in 4th waves the correction will be complex, with several three-wave patterns strung together, with the occasional triangle toss into the mix. And often a simple three-wave pattern is all that occurs. There is no way to predict it.

What we do know is that the upward correction is continuing, and the challenge will be to find an exit for my options bear positions on SPY that expire in mid-August. At this degree, the Subminuette,I would expect wave 5 to be complete within a week or 10 days, setting up a 1st wave to the downside that will benefit the positions.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 24, 2018

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11:30 a.m. New York time

I have spoken of the difficulty, the ambiguities, that challenge the practice of Elliott wave analysis. We are now in such a time on SPY. When facing such challenges, my practice is to dive deeply into the smaller reaches of the chart.

The SPY chart below covers 15 days with 10-minute bars.

 

I have been counting the July 18 high as the probable completion of wave C of the Minuette degree, which has been underway since July 3, and even more significantly, of wave 2 of the Minute degree {+1}, an event that would set up a significant 3rd wave decline.

To resolve the ambiguities, I counted down to the Submicro {-3} degree. The result leads me to believe that the July 18 high was the end of the 3rds wave at the Micro degree {-2}, with the present decline being a 4th wave Micro correction, to be followed by a push above the July 18 high to complete the C wave of Minuette degree.

Now, under this count, the vertical distance and horizontal time covered by the earlier portions of wave C are small compared to the later waves within C, and that’s a bit troubling, although not unheard of.

On the other hand, if wave C were complete, then what follows would be a 1st wave to the downside within a 3rd wave resumption of the major trend. The insipid decline we’ve seen since July 18 looks far more like a 4th wave correction than a 1st wave, which argues in favor of the count I’ve presented here.

Time, as always, will put all ambiguities to rest.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 23, 2018

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We get a first look at Gross domestic product for the 2nd quarter, April through June, on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. GDP counts in the markets if there’s a surprise; usually, there’s not, but my crystal ball, like yours, shattered long ago. So as rational traders, we must take events as they unfold.

The disposition of those goods will be studied through international trade in goods, reporting how much was imported from abroad and how much exported, and by implication, how much stayed within the American economy. The global trade stats will be published on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Demand for those goods will also gain some insight, from the durable goods orders report, also on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

And the always fascinating housing sector will see two major reports, existing home sales on Monday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m.

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10:20 a.m. New York time

And the week ends, or so it seams in morning trading, not with a bang but a whimper. SPY is trading this morning in yesterday’s range. I foresee no trades.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 20, 2018

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10:55 a.m. New York time

SPY is trading this morning slightly below yesterday’s range. The chart analysis posted yesterday remains valid. I anticipate no trades today.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 19, 2018

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10:05 a.m. New York time

I’ve updated my longer-term charts for SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, and ARKG, a fund tracking the genetics sector which I am presently out of but would like to re-enter.

SPY continues an upward counter-trend correction, which I’ve labeled as a 2nd wave of the Intermediate degree in Elliott wave analysis. Within that wave it is presently tracing out a B wave of Minute degree.

The position expires in mid-August, so the trick will be to pick a low moment within the B wave to exit. The 2nd wave is contrary to my bear position.

The SPY chart covers one year with daily bars.

My count for ARKG remains bullish at the higher degrees, showing that the quickly innovating genetics sector is operating differently from the more established blue chips. Nevertheless, I see ARKG as being in a downward counter-trend correction, and I won’t re-enter my shares position until that correction is complete.

The ARKG chart covers a year using daily bars.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 18, 2018

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11:35 a.m. New York time

SPY continues its sideways course at what I count as the peak of a C wave of the Minuette degree that may mark the end of the 2nd wave one degree higher, at the Minute degree. I anticipate no trades today.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 17, 2018

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9:55 a.m. New York time

SPY is trading this morning within Friday’s range and requires no action.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 16, 2018

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