The week begins with am economic policy whimper by the Federal Open Market Committee, probably, and ends with the most politically fraught of all the economic reports, employment,

The FOMC meets for two days, culminating on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time with an announcement of any changes to the Federal Funds rate. Since they raised the rate at the last meeting, no change is the likely outcome. The tick-tock on the state of the economy, however, is always fascinating.

The employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m., and as usual will be preceded by a sneak preview, the non-governmental ADP employment report, on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Two other reports of interest are scheduled for publication, personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m. and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Thursday at 10 a.m.

Also, look for a grand potpourri of reports that go into the index of leading indicators.

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The Carlyle Group L.P. (CG)

I have entered a bull position on CG using shares. The company publishes earnings on Feb. 7 before the opening bell. CG entered its present uptrend on the Fisher Transform metric a day ago. Its last four Fisher uptrends lasted on average 11.5 days, with a range from two days to 17 days.

CG turned downtrending on the Fisher Transformer metric, joining a general market slip. I exited.

sym	entry	exit	result (%)	annualized (%)	entry date	exit date
CG	25.70	25.26	-1.70	-104.0%	1/26	2/1

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 26, 2018

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1/26 – 3:20 p.m. New York time

I entered a shares position on CG and exite and options position on TWTR.

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Kellogg Co. (K)

Medidata Solutions Inc. (MDSO)

Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPW)

I have entered earnings plays using shares on three symbols, all for projected exit by Feb. 7 at the latest.

I exited MPW on Jan. 29 and MDSO on Jan. 30 on Fisher Transform reversals downward amid a general decline in the stock markets.

K turned down on Feb. 1, along with much of the broader market, triggering a downtrend signal on the Fisher Transformer. I exited for a minuscule profit.

sym	entry	exit	result (%)	annualized (%)	entry date	exit date
K	67.66	67.84	0.3%	14%	1/25	2/1
MDSO	70.00	70.07	0.1%	7.3%	1/25	1/30
MPW	13.19	12.97	-1.7%	-152.2%	1/25	2/7

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 25, 2018

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Twitter Inc. (TWTR)

Update 1/26/2018: TWTR’s Fisher Transform metric reversed to uptrending and, in line with my current guidelines, I exited immediately. The trend change puts TWTR’s trend at odds with a strong negative earnings surprise predictor from Zacks of -11%. 

Shares rose by 4.3% over one day, or a +1,569% annual rate. The options position produced a -30.4% loss for a -11,109% annual rate.

Seeking Alpha posted this take on the reversal: Twitter gains while analysts face COO departure.

In traditional chart analysis, TWTR’s decline was a fall from a double top, and double-top lore put support at $21.53. TWTR’s low before the the reversal took wind was $21.04, so it fell short of the mark by 51 cents.

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I have entered a bear call vertical spread on TWTR, using options that trade for the last time 15 days hence, on Feb. 9. The premium is a $0.32 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $22.33.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on a negative earnings surprise predictor from Zacks of -11.0% and a downtrend from the Fisher Transform metric.

TWTR publishes earnings on Feb. 8 before the opening bell.

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1/25 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered four earnings plays today, using options on TWTR and shares on K, MDSO and MPW. I exited EGN for a loss.

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Energen Corp. (EGN)

The Manitowoc Co. Inc. (MTW)

I entered two bullish earnings plays using shares, on EGN and MTW. The entry is based on an uptrend signal on the Fisher Transform metric and a high expectation of an earnings surprise.

EGN publishes earnings on Feb. 8 before the opening bell and MTW, on Feb. 7 after the market close. My intent is to exit the positions before earnings are published, relying on the Fisher Transform to signal when I should exit.

EGN moved to a downtrend as signaled by the Fisher Transform shortly after entry. I exited on Jan. 25 for a loss. A Fisher reversal occurred on Jan. 30, and I exited MTW, also for a loss.

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1/24 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

I entered two earnings plays using shares and exited two. The entries are EGN and MTW, and the exits — held for two days — are CTLT and IT,

I analyzed ANTM in part but once I calculated the wide bid/ask spread, I declined the trade without a full analysis.

I posted my pools of options (nine symbols) and shares (23 symbols) earnings plays that I shall be analyzing from for the next week

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Hasbro Inc. (HAS)

I have rejected a short bull put spread on HAS, using options that trade for the last time 17 days hence, on Feb. 9. The bid/ask spread was very high — greater than 100% — and as a firm rule I don’t trade such illiquid assets.

Here’s the analysis that got me to that decision:

I made the decision to analyze the trade in my account based on a downtrend beginning Jan. 16 as measured by the Fisher Transform metric and a bearish rank and a negative score of -3.87% on the earnings surprise predictor from Zacks.

HAS publishes earnings on Feb. 5 before the opening bell.

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Facebook Inc. (FB)

Update 1/30/2018: FB turned to the downside on the Fisher Transform metric, and I exited for a profit. The drop coincided with a general decline in blue chip stocks.

The signal came a day before the mandatory date of exit required to avoid the earnings announcement.

Shares declined by 1.2% over seven days, or a -61% annual rate. The options position produced a -19.5% loss for a -1,015% annual rate.

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I have entered a short bull put spread on FB, using options that trade for the last time 17 days hence, on Feb. 9. The premium is a $1.78 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $187.35.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on a positive earnings surprise predictor of 2.04% and a bull rating from Zacks and an uptrend signaled Jan. 22 by the Fisher Transform metric.

FB publishes earnings on Jan. 31 after the closing bell.

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