3/23 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

My bear position on X reached its management point, 50% of maximum potential profit, and I exited. Results to come soon. I shall consider the question of re-entry on Monday.

No other trades today, so this wraps up the week.

3/23 – 10:45 a.m. New York time

All of my holdings are solidly in line with my bearish assessment except for GLD, which gapped to the upside yesterday. The price remains below the high of Jan. 26, which marked the start of the present decline, and so I am inclined to hold the position and see what develops over time.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 23, 2018

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3/22 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

I exited one position today, EL, and entered none.

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3/21 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered no new positions today and exited none.

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The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)

Update 3/22/2018: EL reversed the day after I entered, and on the second day gave a downtrend signal on the Fisher Transform. I exited for a loss.

My shares position declined by 1.5% over the two-day holding period for a -264% annual rate.

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I have entered a long shares position on EL at a debit of $147.68 per share.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on a high expectation of a positive earnings surprise, a bullish Zacks rank, an uptrend signal on the daily Fisher Transform and an Elliott wave count that shows, somewhat ambiguously, that EL in an uptrend. The rise from 2016 is poorly differentiated, but it appears to me to be in a 5th wave up in the rise since April 2017.

EL publishes earnings May 2  before the opening bell.

 

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 16, 2018

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3/20 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

I entered a shares position on EL and exited none of my holdings.

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3/19 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered no new positions and exited one, MLNX.

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The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days beginning Tuesday, culminating with an announcement and fresh forecasts on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time and a news conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m.

The FOMC last raised the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.25-1.50% on Dec. 14, 2017. A year ago the committee raised rates in March 2017 following a December 2016 increase. Based on that history an increase seems more likely than not, and also totally unsurprising and well priced into the markets already.

Otherwise, the week’s focus is on real estate, with existing home sales out on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and new home sales on Friday at 10 a.m. Also hitting the Street during the week, durable goods orders on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

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Mellanox Technologies Ltd. (MLNX)

3/19/2018: MLNX reversed with a downtrend signal from the Fisher Transform and I exited for a loss.

The shares position produced a 2.2% loss over three days for a -272% annual rate.

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I have entered a long shares position on MLNX. The stock at the time of entry was priced at $73.95.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on expectations for a positive earnings surprise, and longer-term bull rating from Zacks, a Fisher Transform uptrend signal on the daily chart and a bullish Elliott wave count.

The position is contrary to the trend of the equities markets as a whole, which are bearish according to the Elliott wave count.

MLNX publishes earnings on April 25 after the closing bell.

sym	entry	exit	result (%)	annualized (%)	entry date	exit date
MLNX	73.95				3/16

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 16, 2018

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Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)

Update 4/2/2018: The broad market decline that began in late January added another down day to the charts, and DVN like most stocks was part of it. I exited for a $0.23 debit, or 59.6% of maximum potential profit, with shares at $30.44.

Shares declined by 5.2% over my 17-day holding period, or a -112% annual rate. The options position produced a 147.9% return for a +3,174% annual rate.

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I have entered a short vertical spread on DVN, using options that trade for the last time 35 days hence, on April 20. The premium is a $0.57 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $32.12.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on implied analyst expectations of a negative earnings surprise, a downtrend in the stock price within the context of a bearish market..

DVN publishes earnings on May 1 after the closing bell.

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3/16 – 3:20 p.m. New York time

I entered two positions today, DVN and MLNX, and exited none.

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