Two price reports are on the economic reporting agenda this week: The consumer price index on Wednesday and the producer price index for final demand on Tuesday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Several portions of the economic pie will also come under scrutiny. Retail sales for October, out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., will provide a baseline for the holiday shopping season. The factories that those presents and much more will show up in the industrial production on Thursday at 9:15 a.m., and the ever influential business of providing roofs over people’s heads, housing starts, will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard talks about fintech — the financial technology that is remaking our economy — at the Financial Stability Conference in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Thursday at 3:45 p.m. New York time. The even will be livestreamed here.

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Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN)

TSN publishes earnings on Monday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 14 days hence, on Nov. 24.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is triple the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TSN’s IV stands in the 74th percentile of its annual range and the 96th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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JD.com Inc. (JD)

Update 11/13/2017: JD reported earnings of $0.1192 per share, beating the Street estimate of $0.10. The share price rose by more than $4 before the opening bell but dropped back by the start of general trading.

Zacks had forecast no earnings surprise in the context of a neutral score (3) and a 1.40 beta.

JD shares closed $1.38 higher the first trading day after earnings were published compared to the final pre-earnings close. That puts the move within the expected 85% chance move of $2.82 and all three post-earns moves metrics of the past year: the average of $1.85, the maximum of $2.77 and the central tendency of $2.18.

During the lifespan of my position, shares rose by 1.4% over three days (including the weekend), or a +174% annual rate. The options position produced a +33.0% return for a +4,019% annual rate.

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JD publishes earnings on Monday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 14 days hence, on Nov. 24.

Implied volatility stands at 45%, which is 4.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

JD’s IV stands in the 56th percentile of its annual range and the 87th percentile of its most recent broad movement. 

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11/10 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

Outcomes: I entered an earnings play using options on JD but passed on a similar play on TSN after analysis. I exited three earnings plays using shares: CLMT, ESES and PBYI.

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Shares trades in connection with earnings announcements: PBYI, CLMT and ESES.

Outcomes: The CLMT announcement did not happen, as the company released a statement. PBYI’s earnings came in higher than estimated, although still a loss, and ESES came in below the estimate, also still negative. All three positions produced losses.

sym	entry	exit	result ($)	result (%)	entry date	exit date
PBYI	127.50	112.45	-15.05	-11.8%	11/9	11/10
	zacks score	zacks esp	beta	earns est.	earns actual
	3	18.47	0.85	-2.75	-1.36
sym	entry	exit	result ($)	result (%)	entry date	exit date
CLMT	9.80	9.30	-0.50	-5.1%	11/9	11/10
	zacks score	zacks esp	beta	earns est.	earns actual
	3	80.95	1.26	0.16	TBD
sym	entry	exit	result ($)	result (%)	entry date	exit date
ESES	1.51	1.46	-0.05	-3.3%	11/9	11/10
	zacks score	zacks esp	beta	earns est.	earns actual
	3	16.67	2.14	-0.06	-0.1

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NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)

NVDA publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on Nov. 17.

Implied volatility stands at 51%, which is 4.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

NVDA’s IV stands in the 64th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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11/9 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered three earnings plays using shares — CLMT, ESES and PBYI — and exited one, ANDV, for a loss. I analyzed NVDA but declined to take the trade, reflecting upon the virtue of trading small.

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Shares trades in connection with earnings announcements: ANDV. After earnings delivered a significant upside surprise, shares declined rapidly, despite a positive surprise on both earnings and sales. I exited for a loss, pondering the great truth of our world: In the markets, cause and effect are nonlinear.

Note that I am changing the headline style to list the market symbol of the shares traded.

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11/8 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered a shares position keyed to earnings on ANDV and exited MYGN, TTWO, OR and ROK for a net profit on all four.

I passed on an earnings play using options on JCI without a full analysis.

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Share trades entered in connection with earnings announcements: OR, ROK, MYGN and TTWO. I exited the next day, November 8, with profits on MYGN and TTWO, and losses on OR and ROK.

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