6/23 – 2:50 p.m. New York time
Outcomes: I entered a new position on KRE and exited positions on NVDA, ORCL and QQQ. I attempted to exit RHT but couldn’t get a fill I liked, so I’ll try again on Monday.
Author: Tim Bovee
FB Analysis
Facebook Inc, (FB)
Update 7/10/2017: FB rose for two days after I entered the position and then fell sharply for more than a week before beginning a two-day rise (so far) that brought the position to my target price. I exited at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.
I reached that point by rolling the position forward, as noted in the earlier update below, The results calculation is based on the entire series.
Shares showed a net rise of 0.06% over 18 days, or a +1% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.2% yield on debit for a +672% annual rate.
Update 6/27/2017: I rolled FB forward to a later expiration, leaving the strike prices in the structure unchanged.
The roll cost $0.23 for the exit and brought in a $4.75 premium from the new position, for a net premium for the series of $4.98.
I shall defer calculation of results until the series is complete.
FB shows high implied volatility, making it a candidate for non-directional trade.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 15 days hence, on July 7.
Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
FB’s IV stands in the 38th percentile of its annual range and the 59th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
FINL and SONC Analyses
Finish Line Inc. (FINL)
Sonic Corp. (SONC)
FINL publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell and SONC on Thursday after the closing bell.
Neither symbol has weekly options. The nearest monthly series expires on July 21, which is 28 days out,
As busy as it has been, rather than risk tying up funds for the longer period, I shall forego these two trades without a full analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 22, 2017
BBRY Analysis
BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY)
Update 6/26/2017: BBRY gapped sown sharply after earnings were published and continued to trade low the day after. I exited at 3% of maximum potential profit.
Shares declined by 8.0% over four days, or a -726% annual rate. The options position produced a 3.1% yield on debit for a +279% annual rate.
BBRY publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on June 30.
Implied volatility stands at 63%, which is 6.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
BBRY’s IV stands at the peak of its annual range and the 97th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
BBBY Analysis
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY)
Update 6/26/2017: Shares gapped sharply to the downside after earnings were published and stayed low the next day. I exited for a loss.
Shares declined by 15.9% over four days, or a -1,451% annual rate. The options position produced a -46.6% loss on debit for a -4,252 annual rate.
BBBY publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on June 30.
Implied volatility stands at 41%, which is 3.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
BBBY’s IV stands at the peak of both its annual range and its most recent broad movement.
Live: Thursday, June 22, 2017
6/22 – 3:45 p.m. New York time
And the outcomes for the day. I entered three new positions, earnings plays on BBBY and BBRY and a non-directional trade on FB unrelated to earnings. I exited three positions, AAPL, CCL and HAIN, each for a profit. I declined to trade FINL and SONC due to the absence of weekly options.
CCL Analysis
Carnival Corp. (CCL)
Update 6/22/2017: CCL’s price was little affected by its earnings announcement. A decline in implied volatility allowed me to exit at 27% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net decline of 0.2% over the one day, entry to exit, or a -55% annual rate. The options position produced a 36.3% yield on debit for a +13,231% annual rate.
CCL publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 30.
Implied volatility stands at 23%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
CCL’s IV stands in the 26th percentile of its annual range and the 83rd percentile of its most recent broad movement.
ACN Analysis
Accenture Plc (ACN)
Update 6/26/2017: ACN gapped sharply to the downside after earnings were published and then continued trading within that day’s range for two trading sessions thereafter. I exited at 18.9% of maximum potential profit.
Shares fell by 2.9% over five days, or a -212% annual rate. The options position produced a 23.3% yield on debit for a +1,703% annual rate.
ACN publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 30.
Implied volatility stands at 23%, which is double the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
ACN’s IV stands in the 57th percentile of its annual range and the 85th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
ORCL Analysis
Oracle Corp. (ORCL)
Update 6/23/2017: ORCL gapped $5 to the upside after earnings were published and continued to trade around that level the next day. I exited for a loss a week before the position’s options expire.
Shares showed a net rise of 9.9% over two days, or a +1,803% annual rate. The options positoin produced a -44.6% loss on debit for a -8,139% annual rate.
HAIN Analysis
Hain Celestial Group Inc. (HAIN)
Update 6/22/2017: HAIN underwent a $3 whipsaw after earnings were published, with the net impact of a decline from its pre-earnings close. A sharp drop in implied volatility allowed an exit at 25% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net rise of 2.5% over a day, entry to exit, or a +917% annual rate. The options position produced a +33.2% yield on debit for a +12,122% annual rate.
HAIN publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 30.
Implied volatility stands at 57%, which is 5.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
HAIN’s IV stands in the 69th percentile of its annual range and the 85th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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