6/28 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

Outcomes: I entered positions in STZ and WBA, and exited a position in PAYX. I analyzed CAG but declined the trade.

Read More »

Paychex Inc. (PAYX)

Update 6/28/2017: PAYX gapped to the downside by about $2 after earnings were published, and then rose to regain about half of the decline. I exited at 25% of maximum potential profit, my target.

Shares showed a net decline of 2.2% over my holding period of less than a day, or a -787% annual rate. The options position produced a +33.3% yield on debit for a +12,167% annual rate.

---

PAYX publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 24 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is 2.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PAYX’s IV stands in the 81st percentile of its annual range and the 89th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

General Mills Inc. (GIS)

GIS publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 24 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 26%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GIS’s IV stands in the 58th percentile of its annual range and the 54th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production (ETF) (XOP)

Update 7/12/2017: XOP traced a sideways zig-zag about $2 wide since I entered, in the last. In the last few days it has toyed with my target level but never quite made it. To clear space for other trades and to remove risk, I exited at 22.2% of maximum potential profit. My target was 25%.

Shares rose by 1.3% over 15 days, or a +33% annual rate. The options position produced a +28.6% yield on debit for a +695% annual rate.

---

XOP has halted its decline with implied volatility still relatively high. I shall look at it as a non-directional trade on the expectation that the price will fluctuate sideways for awhile before making its next move.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 24 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 33%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

XOP’s IV stands in the 39th  percentile of its annual range and the 75th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

6/27 3:20 p.m. New York time

I entered two new positions, PAYX and XOP, exited my position on DRI and rolled FB to a later expiration.

I analyzed GIS but declined to take the trade.

I am attempting to exit KRE but the order has yet to be filled. I shall leave it active until the closing bell.

Read More »

KB Home (KBH)

Update 7/14/2017; KBH rose after earnings were published and thenmoved into a sideways pattern, repeatedly moving into profitability but staying short of my target of 25% of maximum potential profit. As expiration approached I exited at 16.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares rose by 4.7% over 18 days, or a +96% annual rate. The options position produced a +20.4% yield on debit for a +414% annual rate.

---

KBH publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 25 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 34%, which is 3.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

KBH’s IV stands in the 43rd percentile of its annual range and the 95th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI)

Update 6/27/2017: DRI gapped to the upside after earnings were published but quickly shrinking the chasm to below $3. I exited at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 3.3% over my holding period of a bit less than 24 hours, or a +1,185% annual rate. The options positoin produced a 33.2% yield on debit for a +12,108% annual rate.

---

DRI publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 25 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 37%, which is 3.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DRI’s IV stands at the peak of both annual range and its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

6/26 – 3 p.m. New York time

I entered with new positions, both coinciding with earnings announcements: DRI and KBH.  I exited six positions: ACN, BBBY, MSFT, NFLX, RHT and BBRY.

Read More »

A series of reports this week hits the economic fundamentals: The Gross Domestic Product, a third estimate for the 1st quarter, on Thursday, international trade in goods on Wednesday and personal income and outlays on Friday, and durable goods orders on Monday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Read More »

SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF (KRE)

Update 7/3/2017: KRE rose for four days after I entered the position, settling into a three-day sideways movement in unprofitable territory. I exited the week the options were due to expire.

Shares rose by 4.34% over 10 days, or a +158% annual rate. The options position produced a -32.7% loss on debit for a -1,195% annual rate.

---

KRE has sufficiently high implied volatility to qualify for analysis and possibly a trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 14 days hence, on July 7.

Implied volatility stands at 25%, which is 2.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

KRE’s IV stands in the 36th percentile of its annual range and the 60th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »