Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG)
Update 4/26/2017:
HOG declined sharply after earnings were published and then retained sufficient ground to the upside that, along with declining implied volatility and time decay, allowed it to become profitable. I exited at my target price of 25% of maximum potential profit.
Shares declined by 4.5% over nine days, or a -184% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.1% yield on debit for a +1,344% annual rate
HOG publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.
I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 32 days hence, on May 19.
Implied volatility stands at 40%, which is 2.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
HOG’s IV stands in the 46th percentile of its annual range and the 95th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
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