Dollar General Corp. (DG)

Update 6/2/2017: DG gapped to the upside after earnings were published and continued to rise the next day. I took the loss with a week left before expiration.

Shares rose b7 9.3% over two days, or a +1,699% annual rate. The options position produced a -37.7% loss on debit for a -6,888% annual rate.

---

DG publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 9.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 2.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DG’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and the 98th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

Ciena Corp. (CIEN)

Update 6/2/2017: CIEN rose sharply into unprofitable territory, with little hope of becoming profitable in the week before expiration. I took the loss.

Shares showed a net rise of 17.2% over two days, or a +3,129% annual rate. The options position produced a -47.3% loss on debit for a -8,632% annual rate.

---

CIEN publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 9.

Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CIEN’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 85th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

Box Inc. (BOX)

Update 6/5/2017: BOX gapped to the upside after earnings were published, stayed high for a second day and then dropped back to only slightly above its pre-earnings price. I exited at 25% of maximum profit, my target level.

Shares showed a net rise of 4.7% over five days, or a +341% annual rate. The options position produced a 38.4% yield on debit for a +2,655% annual rate.

---

BOX publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 16 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BOX’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and at the peek of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

5/31 – 3;05 p.m. New York time

I entered four new positions today: BOX, CIEN, DG and PANW. I analyzed HPE as a potential earnings play but declined to take it.

I exited ADI for a profit and have an order in to exit AAPL, which has not been filled and appears unlikely to go through today. Nonetheless, I shall leave the AAPL order active and update if is executed before the closing bell.

Read More »

Golar LNG Ltd. (GLNG)

Update 6/9/2017: GLNG declined for seven trading days after earnings were published. It bumped up a dollar to the upside on June 9, but with expiration a week away I judged that it had insufficient chance of reaching profitability, and so I exited for a loss.

Shares declined by 13.0% over 10 days, or a -476% annual rate. The options position produced a 53.8% loss on debit for a -1,967% annual rate

---

GLNG publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 17 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 51%, which is five times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GLNG’s IV stands in the 15th percentile of its annual range and the peak percentile of its most recent broad movement. The annual range peak was reached in July 2016, nearly a year ago, so what we’re seeing today is a volatility recovery within a long-running downtrend.

Read More »

Michael Kors Holdings Inc. (KORS)

Update 6/2/2017: KORS gapped to the downside after earnings were published and then moved sideways. I judged that there was little chance of an improvement in the week before expiration and took the loss.

Shares declined by 8.3% over three days, or a -1,011% annual rate. The options position produced a 7.0% annual rate for a -647.98% annual rate.

---

KORS publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 9.

Implied volatility stands at 49%, which is 4.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

KORS’s IV stands in the 79th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

Analog Devices Inc. (ADI)

Update 5/31/2017: ADI gapped to the upside after earnings were published and the pulled back. I exited at 27.1% of maximum potential profit.

Shares produced a net rise of 1.9% over one day, or a +692% annual rate. The options position produced a 37.2% yield on debit for a +13,586% annual rate.

---

ADI publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 17 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 3.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

ADI’s IV stands in the 65th percentile of its annual range and the 80th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

5/30 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

I entered three positions today: ADI, GLNG and KORS.

I exited two positions: CPB and MRVL.

I have an exit order on AAPL and shall update if it is filled before the closing bell.

Read More »

In a reversal of T.S. Eliot, next week will begin with a whimper — the U.S. markets are closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday — and will end with a bang — the always much anticipated employment situation report, on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The employment report will be previewed on Thursday  by the private-sector ADP employment report, out at 8:15 a.m.

Three other major reports  will be published during the week: Personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index on Thursday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Read More »

5/26 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

Here’s the scorecard for the day before the markets close for a three-day weekend.

New positions: None. I looked at USO but didn’t like the grid because I couldn’t construct an iron fly structure with both short strike prices sufficiently near the at-the-money point.

Rolls to new expirations: One. I exited my EWZ position that expires June 2, rolling it forward to a June 16 expiration, collecting more premium in the process.

Exits for a profit: Three. COST, GME and BIG, all of them earnings plays.

Exits for a loss: One. The loss, on BBY, was also an earnings play.

I have exit orders in place on AAPL, CPB and MRVL that have not yet been filled. I shall leave them active until the closing bell and update this post if any of the trades go through.

A productive day of trading. Over the weekend, look for The Week Ahead and the first Live update for Tuesday. And I shall return to my trading desk (well, trading sofa, really) on Tuesday. Enjoy!

Read More »