Author: Tim Bovee

WFC Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)

Update 4/19/2017: WFC gapped to the downside after earnings were published and then over three days retraced much of the decline. I exited at 19.4% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 2.0% over seven days, or a -102% annual rate. The options position produced a 24.1% yield on debit for a +1,258% annual rate.

 

WFC publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 37 days hence, on May 19.

Implied volatility stands at 26%, which is 1.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

WFC’s IV stands in the 56th percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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JPM Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

Update 4/17/2017: JPM fell after earnings were announced, the day before a three-day holiday weekend, and then recovered most of its loss after the holiday. I exited slightly below my target of 25% of maximum potential profit in order to clear space in my account for new trades. At exit the price was at 22.6% of max profit.

Shares decliend by 0.3% over five days for a 24% annual rate. The options posiion produced a 29.1% yield on debit for a +2,127% annual rate

 

JPM publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 37 days hence, on May 19.

Implied volatility stands at 25%, which is 1.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

JPM’s IV stands in the 42nd percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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DAL Analysis

Tim Bovee3 Comments

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

Update 4/27/2017: DAL did a fair imitation of a yo-yo after earnings were published, rising sharply from where it began the today and then falling to near its starting point, falling further the next day and then rising to slightly beyond the post-earnings peak, and then declined again to near where the fluctuations began.

All in all, a lot of Sturm und Drang, signifying nothing. I exited at 33% of maximum potential profit.

Shares staged a net decline of 0.8% over 16 days, or a +18% annual rate. The options position produced a 49.1% yield on debit for a +1,121% annual rate.

DAL publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 38 days hence, on May 19.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DAL’s IV stands in the 27th percentile of its annual range and the 96th percentile of its most recent broad movement, which is in a fairly narrow range typical of DAL for the past two months.

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The Week Ahead: Prices and retail

Tim Bovee

The U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for a religious holiday. Banks and the economic reporting machine will be open.

Two price indexes will be published during the week: The consumer price index on Friday and the producer final demand price index on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Also of note, retail sales on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a discussion with Susan Collins, dean of the Ford School in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Monday at 4:10 p.m.  The event will be streamed live here.

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Live: Friday, April 7, 2017

Tim Bovee

4/7 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

I exited ORCL for a profit and partially exited LOW in what will prove to be a loss.

As the first rumbles of earnings season approach, I shall have four — possibly five — new positions next week based on earnings announcements, a welcome oasis in the desert of inactivity that marks my off-season trading.

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