4/4 – 2:45 p.m. New York time
I have no further trades for the day, beyond my two exits: TJX for a profit and MU for a loss.
Author: Tim Bovee
Live: Monday, April 3, 2017
The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, trade and a farewell
It’s jobs week again, one of the 12 milestones a year that provide a lagging view of a core metric of the state of the economy. The employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, preceded by the private-sector ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m., the latter providing a sneak preview of the main even that the markets pay attention to.
Other, lesser punctuations to the trading week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m., international trade on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the March 15 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m.
Live: Friday, March 31, 2017
3/31 – 3:00 p.m. New York time
My work for the day, and for the week, is done. I exited one position, SPY, and entered none.
Enjoy the weekend.
Live: Thursday, March 30, 2017
3/30 – 3:25 p.m. New York time
I’m shutting down for the day with no analyses and no trades.
EWZ Analysis
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ)
Update 4/19/2017: EWZ continued a sideways correction that began in early March as time decay worked to bring the position to profitability. I exited at 18.2% of maximum profit.
Shares showed a net decline of 3.1% over 21 days, or a -54% annual rate. The options position produced a 22.3% yield on debit for a +387% annual rate.
EWZ, an exchange-traded fund, has sufficiently high implied volatility to support a trade for the nearer term, although it is quite low compared to the annual range.
I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 51 days hence, on May 19.
Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is double the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
EWZ’s IV stands in the 25th percentile of its annual range and the 75th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Wednesday, March 29, 2017
3/29 – 3:30 p.m. New York time
I am calling a close to my trading day, with one new position: EWZ. No exits.
LB Analysis
L Brands Inc. (LB)
Update 5/20/2017; LB gapped sharply to the downside immediately upon the publication of earnings, recovered about half the decline, moved further to the downside and then returned several times to the 50% retracement level. I exited the bear call spread portion of the position on May 15, allowing the bull put spread side to expire without value on May 20.
During the lifepsan of the position, shared rose by a net 43.1% over 53 days, or a +297% annual rate. The options position produced a +4.2% yield on debit for a +29% annual rate.
LB has sufficiently high implied volatility by several measures to support a trade.
I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 52 days hence, on May 19.
Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is 2.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
LB’s IV stands in the 52nd percentile of its annual range and the 39th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Tuesday, March 28, 2017
XRT Analysis
SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT)
Update 5/12/2017: XRT rose steadily beyond my position’s zone of profitability and then, in last five trading days, retreated, allowing me to exit at $1.46, or 25.1% of maximum potential profit, almost precisely at my target.
Shares showed a net rise of 2.7% over 46 days, or a +21% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.6% yield on debit for a +266% annual rate
XRT has sufficiently high volatility to qualify for trading.
I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 53 days hence, on May 19.
Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
XRT’s IV stands in the 43rd percentile of its annual range and the 47th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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