3/10 – 4:05 p.m. New York time
… and the day ends with two trades total: Profitable exits of ADSK and PAY. Overall, a laid back day but a good one.
Author: Tim Bovee
PAY Analysis
VeriFone Systems Inc. (PAY)
Update 3/10/2017: PAY’s implied volatility declined sharply after earnings came in at about half of the Street estimate. I exited at 25% of maximum potential profit the day after entering the position.
Shares declined by 3.9% over a day, or a -1,408% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +12,167% annual rate.
PAY publishes earnings on Thursday, March 9, after the closing bell.
I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 43 days hence, on April 21.
Implied volatility stands at 45%, which is 3.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
PAY’s IV stands in the 46th percentile of its annual range and the 89th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Wednesday’s Outcomes, update
An addition to Wednesday’s Outcomes.
My order to exit CRM was filled about half an hour before the closing bell. I have updated the analysis with the results.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 8, 2017
Live: Thursday, March 9, 2017
Wednesday’s Outcomes
I entered no new positions today.
I placed exit orders on my ADSK, CRM and CIEN positions. None has been filled. If any are, I shall update Outcomes after the closing bell. ADSK and CIEN appear unlikely to be filled. CRM is within the realm of possibility.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 8, 2017
Private Trader: Live Coverage
One difficulty with Private Trader is that there are so many housekeeping posts, from Prospects the night before to Outcomes at the end of the trading day, that the analyses tend to get lost.
To simplify the reader’s view, beginning Thursday, March 9, I am changing the Private Trader posting schedule. Rather than a separate post for Prospects, Agenda and Outcomes, I shall do a single post and update it throughout the day.
The headline will be in the form:
Live: Thursday, March 9, 2017
with new updates appearing at the top of the file.
In addition to taking up less blog space, the new format will be less rigid, freeing me to post on trading subjects that don’t fit well into the prospects, agenda, outcomes progression.
Each update will be accompanied by notification on Twitter
and Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader/
just as posts are now.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 8, 2017
Wednesday’s Agenda
Wednesday’s Prospects
I have no prospective new positions awaiting my analysis on Wednesday.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 7, 2017
Tuesday’s Outcomes
I have entered a position on CIEN timed to coincide within earnings announcement.
I am attempting to exit CRM at my target price, but the order has not been filled. I shall leave it active until the closing bell. If it is filled, then I shall update Outcomes.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 7, 2017
CIEN Analsis
Ciena Corp. (CIEN)
Update 3/21/2017: CIEN gapped down sharply immediately after earnings were published and declined further for five trading days before settling on a plateau. I exited at 26.9% of maximum potential profit.
Shares declined by 6.4% over 14 days, or a -166% annual rate. The options position produced a 36.8% yield on debit for a +595% annual rate.
CIEN publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.
I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 45 days hence, on April 21.
Implied volatility stands at 48%, which is 4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
CIEN’s IV stands in the 55th percentile of its annual range and the 76th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
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