The new Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, testifies before Congress for the first time as head of the agency, before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Each hearing begins at 10 a.m. New York time.

Powell is the first non-economist to head the Fed since William Miller, who served in the post in 1978 and 1979. Miller was CEO of an aerospace/defense company, Textron Inc. (TXT), and Powell was an investment banker at several companies, culminating as a vice president at the no-longer existing Dillon, Read & Co.

And that’s what will keep me glued to the screen throughout the testimony: How will his approach and assessments, given his background, differ from those of the long string of economists that have controlled our money, our prosperity and our ability to earn a living and therefore survive in the world. High stakes, and as traders we need to understand the odds of him having an impact on our results.

Meanwhile, back in the more mundane realm of economic reporting, traders will get a second estimate of gross domestic product for the 4th quarter, on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. It will be one of a collection of reports that give deep insight into our economic realities: Durable goods orders and international trade in goods, each on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., and personal income and outlays on Thursday, also at 8:30 a.m.

In addition, new home sales statistics will be published on Monday at 10 a.m.

Back to the Fed, Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will give give an assessment of the U.S. economy in an address to the 34th Annual National Association for Business Economics Economic Policy Conference, on Monday at 3:15 p.m. in Washington.

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2/23 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

No trades today. My two bear positions, FXE and GLD, remain downtrending as measured by the Fisher Transform.

2/23 – 10:40 a.m. New York time

I have no entries or exits in sight for today.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 23, 2018

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2/22 – 3:20 p.m. New York time

I entered no positions today and exited none.

2/22 – 11:25 a.m. New York time

My positions on FXE and GLD remain as they were on Wednesday when I entered them, downtrending as signaled by the Fisher Transform on the daily chart.

I shall exit under two circumstances: 1) A position reaches 50% of its maximum potential profit, or 2) the daily Fisher Transform signals an uptrend.

I’m looking to add one of the broad equity indexes to the mix — SPY or QQQ or IWM — as soon as one gives a Fisher downtrend signal.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 22, 2018

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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

Update 2/27/2018: GLD trended downward in line with its Elliott wave count and its Fisher Transform signal. I exited at 41.2% of maximum potential profit for a $-.38 debit. Shares stood at $125.04 upon exit.

I intend to re-enter GLD if the downtrend continues, continuing a series that began in October 2017.

Shares declined by 0.7% over six days for a -43% annual rate. The options position produced a 68.4% return for a +4,162% annual rate.

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I have entered a bear call vertical spread on GLD, using options that trade for the last time 23 days hence, on March 16. The premium is a $0.64 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $125.94

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on its decline from the high of Feb. 16 and a downtrend signal from the Fisher Transform. 

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CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)

Update 2/27/2018: FXE declined in line with the Elliott wave formation, and I exited at 41.2% of maximum potential profit for a $-0.30 debit. Shares stood at $117.79 upon exit.

At the exit the Fisher Transform and the Elliott wave count both continue to point toward a downtrend, and I intend to re-enter if their present conditions hold, continuing the series that began in October 2017.

Shares declined by 0.% over six days, or a -43% annual rate. The options position produced a 70.0% return for a +4,258% annual rate.

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I have entered a bear call vertical spread on FXE, using options that trade for the last time 23 days hence, on March 16. The premium is a $0.51 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $118.63.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on a trend reversal to the downside as measured by the Fisher Transform, within the context of a sharp reversal from the Feb. 16 peak on the chart..

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2/21 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

I entered two positions today, FXE and GLD, and exited none.

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2/20 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

The Fisher Transform has held steady with an uptrend signal throughout the day in the major markets, vetoing any thoughts of trading. I entered no new positions and exited none.

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U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the President’s Day holiday. Markets in London, Tokyo and Sydney will be open as usual.

The holiday will kick off a week when economics reports are so sparse as to almost be non-existent.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the Jan. 31 meeting will be published on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time. At that meeting FOMC members by unanimous vote kept the interest rate under their control unchanged.

A report on existing home sales, covering the greater part of the housing market, will be released on Wednesday at 10 a.m. The counterpart new home sales report will be published the week after.

And Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles will give a speech in Tokyo on a topic that, amid newly volatile markets, might provide insight into monetary regulators’ thinking: “10 years after the Global Financial Crisis: How has the world economy changed and where will it go?” The speech will be delivered to the International Financial Symposium organized by the Institute for International Financial Affairs, on Thursday at 12:15 a.m. New York time.

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2/16  2:50 p.m. New York time

No trades today, neither into new positions nor out of existing ones.

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2/15 – 3:05 p.m. New Yor time

No change in the situation today. I am standing down until the market moves in a way favorable to my reading of the trends: We’re in an upward correction in the broad market within a larger downtrend.

In Elliott wave terms, I’m looking for a downward impulse wave at the Minuette degree before re-entering the markets. The Minuette degree is roughly equivalent to the daily Fisher Transform metric that I monitor for trend signals.

2/15 – 11:40 a.m. New York time

The counter-trend rally continues in equities. I anticipate no trades today. In Elliott wave terms, so far the corrective rise has  retraced about 50%, a Fibonacci level, of the downtrend’s 1st wave.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 15, 2018

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